Ayr Gold Cup Tips : Russell Blair Racing guest post
Ayr Gold Cup is very very tricky to solve race, even if you do find the right one, they can very easily meet a bit of in running trouble and their chances are blown, but never the less it's always fun to have a play and can be very rewarding if finding the winner. So onto trying to find the winner, the ground the last couple of days have massively favoured the middle to far rail (low numbers), today's reading says the stand side has dried out considerably and come race time it could even be just as quick as the far rail with the centre being the slowest part, so I'm predicting a big split in the field and 2 races going on.
I'd still personally be favouring the low drawn numbers, so to make things easier I'm ruling out half of the field from 12 and above. Ascription comes here too fresh, it's the first time running for a new yard I associate with needing a run or two and the trip too being too sharp. Sir Robert Cheval ran a big race last time out from a less than ideal draw, but effectively goes up 5lb after losing a 3lb claim and going up 2lb from the handicapper, the trainer is struggling for winners and the horse goes better on faster ground.
Another trainer that's struggling a little is D O'Meara, which to be honest isn't a big negative as it happens a lot with he's yard and then hits a treble or more, but I'd still rather be seeing a bit more from his horses at present, anyway his only runner in the race relies on Watchable who generally is consistent even if not winning, but has run some big races against much tougher company and is a big shout of holding onto a place from the front runner at 33/1. Trainer that is in form and is having his best season to date is Bryan Smart, his chance comes with the inform Nameitwhatyoulike, he won a good class 2 that's holds strong form 2 runs back and then went on to win a decent listed race, he's quickly shot up the weights after 2 career bests, but B Smart does smartly (honestly no pun intended) book 5lb claimer Adam McNamara who is well worth his claim, so is only effectively 3lb higher than the solid class 2 win last month, the ground is perfect and you won't see him run into any traffic problems being a front runner, so one I wouldn't put you off.
Jack Dexter comes next, now I'll be honest, I can't work this horse out anymore, backed him a few times over the last few years when everything looks right and then he doesn't show up, 2 runs back at Ascot, he was the first horse I put a line through when the ground was quick, the trip was sharp and he was drawn on the wrong side, with all that was against him that day he put in the best run I've seen him run for a long time, if he runs like that today with everything in his favour he wins I'm sure of it, but I've given up chasing on him so I think I'll pass, also trainer Jim Goldie is struggling atm but again he's another that can turn things around when he wants.
Next to him in the stalls comes the jolly Growl, not gonna touch too much on him, yes he brings in the best form to the race and is still unexposed,
but backing 5/1 shot hold up horses in a 24 horse field sprint with a jockey that hasn't rode the horse before is crazy, yes I may end up with
egg on my face, but it's still not the way to do it. Hoof It is drawn next and is having a great time of things and revived his career over the
last year, not essentially ground dependant but does show better on fast ground, he deserves to be in this race but his handicap mark for his age
now is borderline high but will be thereabouts at the finish. Trainer K Ryan has 3 horses running for him, Brando is one of his more favoured runners
according to the bookies which is probably true but I still couldn't have the horse, convincing group 3 winner on soft ground and put in good efforts
in group 2 and 1 behind Mecca's Angel, but coming into this off top weight up in trip and trying to get up that hill finish I think is a bad move
from K Ryan and he won't see out the trip. Perfect Pasture like many of his siblings out of Pastoral Pursuits on their day are brilliantly quick,
but very temperamental, you just don't know which one will turn up, his run at the Curragh 2 runs ago was brilliant and holds strong form but went
up 10lb for that and bombed out NTO, he will love the ground and stays further than 6f which is crucial, but like I said it depends which Perfect
Pasture turns up, there's worse 40/1 shots out there thou. Kimberella has had a great consistent season, too high in the weights now thou and wants
G FORCE trainer has a fantastic record when sending his horses over the sea, especially when taking them to Ayr with a 32% win record this year with 8 winners. The horse hasn't had a great return after coming back from a failed attempt at being a stud, but that could simply be down to fitness, new environment etc, importantly thou his last run was a very eye catching 3rd after having a wind op, it was in a very strong conditions race, with the winner The Happy Prince just missing out winning a group 2, late on NTO, the fourth horse Flight Risk and fav which G Force was giving away 8lb to on ratings went on to run a good race in a strong group 2 and the 6th horse Ardhoomey went on to win a very strong group 2 sprint NTO, so not only with the form being so strong and giving away up to 8lbs to some of these, he had no luck in running with being caught in a pocket and had to wait till the eventual 2nd to pass him and then make his move finishing off better than any off them. On that evidence his mark of 102 puts him well clear of these for a past group one winning 118 rated horse.
Ayr Gold Cup Tips
To WIn - G Force 10/1
Each Way - Watchable 33/1