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Gary Priestley's Horse Racing Tips : Performance Review

 

 

 

Gary Priestley's Horse Racing Tips : Performance Review

Hi All,

 

As we are half way through the month of November I thought I would have a look back over my horse racing tips in  the first 2.5 months with Tipsters Review. Now I'm a firm believer in the numbers don't lie and stats are facts. For the 3 and a half years I tipped on my own site wins S/R was around 1:15 and win/place S/R was around 1:4.5 from those S/R I had amassed a profit of 1320pts to 1pt ew singles to advised prices.

 

As we all know September was a horrific month with only 4 winners & 20 placed for a loss of 58pts clearly not the start any of us wanted but I knew the numbers don't lie and if I kept doing what I always do it would turn around and those winners would come in abundance to redress the lack of winners in September.
 
Thats exactly what happened in October with 11 Winners & 23 placed for a profit of 68pts. These figures are the reason I know bad runs are going to happen and when they do I don't panic, yes we would all be better off with a constant flow of regular winners rather than the baron periods followed by a blitz of winners but thats not how it works, I've seen it happen to me too many times over the last 30 years to think anything different. Now if you start following my horse racing tips during a barron period you'd be forgiven for thinking what have you done, but all I'll say is stick with it. On the flip side if you start during a winners blitz then please don't think it's always like that because it's not. That's why I insist on level stakes ALL the time no excuses, that way peaks and troffs aren't so difficult to ride.


 

 

Now we are half way through November and its been very kind to us so far after a very poor beginning with all of the first 14 runners finishing out of the frame leaving us minus 28pts after just 4 days of the month. Then we had Alexandrakollontai win at 22-1 having been available at 33-1 on minutes earlier. Since that win we've had a purple patch with 4 more winners at 33-1, 16-1 12-1 & 8-1 plus 12 placed including 40-1 33-1 25-1 & 20-1 all amounting to us being +67pts for the month.

 

Horse racing tips - September 1st to November 15th

 

302 Selections
23 NRs
279 Runners
20 Winners avg odds 17.75/1 SR 1:13.94
26 2nds
27 3rds 75 win/placed S/R 1:3.71
2 4ths
204 losers
+77pts 13.8% ROI

 

As you can see from the S/R above they are both well in advance of the figures shown from the 3500 selections from my own website. So what that tells me is we are to be prepared for a possible barron run because as sure as winning runs follow losing runs vice versa happens.Novembers S/R is 5 winners from 58 runners 1:11.62 and win/place S/R is 1:3.42 both way above average. If these figures carry on to the end of the month I'll be a very happy man, but I would be warned of an expected down turn just because the numbers say so.

Today's free horse racing tips


Cheers
Gary

 

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Comments

Hi Gary,

If you want to know if your results are statistically significant, rather than just due to luck you can calculate something called the p-value. It will tell you the percentage chance you ROI would be achieved at the prices you are tipping at, by making the selections at random. Basically it tells you if your sample size is big enough to make any claims about your results. There is plenty of information on how to do it online. Just google "p-value how good are betting tipsters" Very easy to do if you have your results in a spreadsheet.
Steve | 16-Nov-2016 11:11 AM
My figures are as follows:

Sep: -61.2
Oct: +45.5
Nov: +55.2 (after selections on 16th November had run)

The October figure is quite different, but I've been methodic and included R4s so I'm confident in the accuracy of my data. I appreciate that all bookies apply different R4s but being 20 points out must point to some other inaccuracy.

Great form at the moment though, and I enjoy (and learn from) your gambling philosophy.
Paul | 16-Nov-2016 08:45 PM
My figures are as follows:

Sep: -61.2
Oct: +45.5
Nov: +55.2 (after selections on 16th November had run)

The October figure is quite different, but I've been methodic and included R4s so I'm confident in the accuracy of my data. I appreciate that all bookies apply different R4s but being 20 points out must point to some other inaccuracy.

Great form at the moment though, and I enjoy (and learn from) your gambling philosophy.
Paul | 16-Nov-2016 08:46 PM
Hi Paul,

Sept is more or less the same
Oct I have no idea how you have got to +45pts we had 124 selections 6 NRs thats 118 runners which is 236pts staked. We had 11 winners 22-1,20-1,14-1x2,12-1x2,10-1x2 & 8-1x3 1pt ew on those 11 returns 190pts then the 23placed horses returned 115pts + 305pts in total less 236pt staked = + 69pts thats with R4 taken into account and the lesser prices advised as opposed to those I've backed them at prior to their release.
Nov 62 runners 124pts staked 5 winners 33-1,22-1,16-1,12-1R4 & 8-1 returns 122pts plus 16 placed returning 66pts =188pts +64 thats accounting for Cavalieri at 40-1 and not the 50-1 most people including me got paid out at and Valadom at 12-1 not 14-1 I backed him at. Small margins will always happen as R4s vary and ew terms can vary. Unless I've missed something I can't see how these figures are so different.

Scott is having them independantly verrified and proofed.

Regards
Gary
gary | 16-Nov-2016 10:42 PM
Thanks for the response, Gary. I'm going to go over over my stats for October in the coming days and hopefully I'll be able to marry them up! I'm slightly OCD so it's an annoyance :)

Keep up the good work!
Paul | 17-Nov-2016 09:06 PM

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