On trial this week : Racing Consultants
Service type: Horse racing tipster
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Trial Info :Horse racing tipsters Racing consultants will be providing us with their horse racing tips tips over the next 7 days. Each day at around 11am the horse racing tips will be posted on-line and sent out via email. A Full analysis of each tip will be provided and win and each way bets will be advised.
Message from the tipster:
The daily bulletins will generally be sent out around 11 – 11.30am each morning; although occasionally where we feel a selection may be price sensitive we may send that one out the night before.
Given the average stakes advised each day (4-8 points) we suggest a sensible 100pt betting bank should be set aside to cope with the ups and downs along the profitable journey.
To maximise the profit opportunity from the Racing Consultants service it is advisable, if you have not already, to open new accounts with the “Best Odds Guaranteed” bookmakers.
If you have an account and it has been restricted, then you may wish to consider using either the betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq, or even the Betfair Sportsbook which also offers “bog” prices.
Best of luck and please feel free to get in touch with any queries that you may have and we will endeavour to reply asap.
Monday 23rd November
|A couple of bets and a few others to mention today. Rory is on WHR for the next couple of days and I’m off to Ludlow to try and gain some
paddock clues for the future.
Today 1.05 Kempton – 1pt win Theo’s Charm (6-1 Skybet, Will Hill, make sure you use BOG as it will drift, we believe) - Lost
3.35 Chelmsford – 1pt win Mappin Time (general 12-1) - Lost
1.05 – 2m Novices Hurdle
The front two in the market take a fair chunk of it this morning, but neither make much appeal, with Brain Power seemingly fully wound up for his debut at Newcastle (when trained by John Jenkins) and then disappointing at Aintree after. He looked promising enough, but he looks a little overrated on what he has achieved so far. Air Horse One finished second in a good bumper at Cheltenham but he’s small and has no scope, and is one we’d looking to be taking on at this stage too. Two Taffs was by far the fittest horse in the paddock for his reappearance at Bangor and may not come on much from his third there, which leaves us with Theo’s Charm, a winner on his debut at Huntingdon and then improved on that subsequently at Ascot and Cheltenham. He should progress this season and if wound up (which is a slight concern), can take this en route to better things. You could argue Nick Gifford isn’t a trainer you’d want to be backing in these sort of events, as he has a poor strike rate, but in truth he was training the horse last year so you wouldn’t expect it to do any worse this year….
We think that he’ll drift as the stats boys won’t like him but for us he’s the best horse in the race and a drift wouldn’t necessarily put us off.
3.35 – 5f Handicap
Tuesday 24th November
|12.40 Southwell – 2pts win Boolass (at 4-1)- Lost
12.20 Sedgefield – 1pt win Cumbrian famer - Lost
1.50 Sedgefield – 1pt win Runswick Relax (9-1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, general 8-1 fine but again no lower)- Lost
3.00 Lingfield – 1pt win Berkeley Barron (general 20-1) - Lost
12.10 – Ladbrokes Amateur Riders’ Handicap (1m)
A bottom grade Amateur’s event isn’t everyone’s idea of a solid betting medium, but they can often be narrowed down to a few and that could be the case here.
There’s little in the way of early pace, unusually so for one of these events, with only Le Deluge and Its All A Game likely pacesetters. Le Deluge has won on the Fibresand before and having won last time out at Chelmsford, will be popular to follow up. However, it should be noted that he was a fresh horse at Chelmsford and has often gone well after a break only to disappoint on his next run, and I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him to follow up.
What he should do is set it up for the closers, who, coincidentally, are all drawn out wide. Uncle Brit won this last year for Carol Walton, and looks to have been brought to the boil with a crack at the repeat. 11 starts at the track have seen 2 wins and 4 places, and this mile suits better than shorter. She may be too far back, however, and might need the leaders to really fall in a hole to get close to them. Another place looks far more likely.
Roger Thorpe looks absolutely rock solid for the frame and has a great chance of collecting the lot. Likely to be ridden closer to the front than Uncle Brit, he’s done well to only get away with a 1lb rise for finishing second to the fast-improving Tigers Home on his latest start, given that one won pulling a cart next time, and the speed figure achieved for that run is well in excess of anything this field can manage. A simple repeat may well be good enough.
Yard Of Ale is quite interesting, given he’s not been with his current yard (Martin Smith) too long, and of his five starts for him, three have been at totally unsuitable trips, suggesting they were trying to either get his mark or keep his mark down. He did have one run in the Fibresand for his previous trainer Kristin Stubbs, and whilst it wasn’t outstanding it did at least show he acts in the surface. He could run okay and get in the frame.
Peace Lilly is favourite here but it’s seemingly on trainer and jockey (Mick Appleby/Serena Brotherton) as on form she’s a bit to find. Although she finished second in a Maiden here last time, the speed figure was poor and she merely ran on past beaten rivals. She has the potential to do better on her first run for the yard today (she is only 3) but she will have to if she’s to win here, and at around 2-1 looks no value at all.
Update – Peace Lilly a non-runner making Roger Thorpe look less value than he was.
12.40 – Download The Ladbrokes App Maiden Stakes (1m)
We’ve got issues with both the front two in the market here, with What Could She Be looking short enough based on her trainer not having a great record on the Fibresand during the Winter months (just 4 winners and a level stakes loss) and Nosey Barker not really progressing, so we’re keen onBoolass being able to open her account in a weak looking race. She’s progressed with each of her three runs on this Fibresand surface and we thought she’d need the run last time after a five month break. With that under her belt, she should strip fitter, and although that run last time out was at 7f, she was sticking to the task and a mile ought not to be a problem.
2.40 – Coral Mobile “Just Three Clicks To Bet” Handicap (1m4f)
Whereas the 12.10 has little in the way of pace, there’s no shortage of it here. Kelly’s Finest, Crockett, Weald Of Kent, Singzak and even last time out Commissar broke a habit of being held up and went from the front, and it almost paid off, nearly spoiling Hayley Turner’s farewell party on Yul Finegold. Not only that, but many of the others like to press the pace, and this has the makings of a true run race.
At a slightly shorter trip, Megamunch would therefore have been of some interest, as he’s usually dropped out and although a hard ride, does respond to pressure. Liam Keniry didn’t help his cause by heading for the inside rail in the straight last time, but even if he’s on a going day, this trip is a bit of an unknown. He’s gets a mile and three furlongs, but as we’ve said before, there’s a bit of an anomaly at Southwell where milers seem to get eleven furlongs, but no further.
The other hold up horse in the race is very interesting, namely Astra Hall. Formerly very useful (rated in the 80s at his peak) with Ralph Beckett, he lost his way when with Simon Hodgson and his mark plummeted as a result. Mick starts out with him on a mark of just 65, and if he acts on the surface (and on breeding there’s a good chance he will) then you can be sure he’ll win races this Winter. One to watch even if it’s not today.
Frosty Berry will be the one that takes all the beating if she can translate her recent improvement on turf to the Fibresand, however her sire Proclamation has yet to have a winner in the surface and the chances are she will blow out completely. Feel free to try a place lay on her nearer the off if she’s still trading around 5-1.
3.10 – Daily Price Boosts At UNIBET Handicap (6f)
Again, this will be fast and furious. Spowarticus and Pull The Pin, in particular, both
The key to this will be how Tellovoi copes with the drop back in trip, because if he can, he could simply outclass this lot. It’s not six months since he was running in class 4’s off a mark in the 80’s, yet here he is on a mark of 65 in a Class 6. That shows what a tale of woe it’s been this Summer/Autumn, but he stopped the rot last time out with a close third here at Southwell over a mile. Chances are, with this being so strongly run, that he will get away with a drop in trip and if so, will be able to,sit in behind the leaders and probably just outstay them. His Southwell record stands at 2 wins and a place from 5 runs here, so has no problem with the surface either. (Update – short enough at 4-1 this morning, I’d want nearer 11-2 given the doubt about the trip.)
Lucky Mark won this last year and will be ready to defend his crown – he’s back on a winning mark but the worry is he’s just another that will get caught up in the speed duel for the lead here. He will remain of interest even if he doesn’t win today.
12.20 Betfred Racing “Like Us On Facebook” Handicap Hurdle (2m 178yds)
We think it could be Ken Slack Day at Sedgefield today, as we’re putting both his runners up, starting with Cumbrian Farmer here. Our reason for backing him is simple enough – he’s well handicapped, will enjoy today’s conditions and the main point is Ken does very well first time up with others cast-offs, which is what Cumbrian Farmer is, having formerly been with George Bewley. Henry Brooke riding is another positive – he’s 5-16 for the yard over the last 5 seasons and we’d have him near favourite for this.
His previous trainer had clearly come to his wits end with him, having tried all manner and combinations of headgear, but Ken just relies on cheekpieces, which he wore for his one win to date.
1.50 – Betfred Racing “Like Us On Facebook” Handicap Hurdle (2m 178yds)
Division 2 of this sees Ken’s other runner on the card,Runswick Relax, formerly with John Wade (including for his three point runs) and now having his first start for the yard. In a nutshell, he’s classier than this lot and as such the big drop back in trip is not necessarily as issue. The other interesting point to note, and may well explain why Runswick Relax seemed to be stopping quickly in his races, is the addition of a tongue tie today. Remarkably, John Wade has only used a tongue tie once in the last six years – so there must be a chance that was the issue. If it’s been sorted out then he’s every chance and as we’ve pointed out, first time up is the time to catch them.
2.30 – 2m3f110y Handicap Hurdle
We intended to make Sirop de Menthe a bet at Huntingdon on Saturday, only for the price to crash, and it was bittersweet to watch him bolt up in a fair race of its type, looking more professional than has been the case. He’s still well treated under a penalty in our view, although he’s in line with his new handicap mark as published today. The one point we made on Saturday which is relevant here is that we believed that this sometimes keen sort would be suited by a drop to two miles, and the only concern for him today is that the longer trip will find him out. In fairness, he wasn’t as keen at Huntingdon as he was at times last year, and if he settles as well again, then stamina may not be an issue. Rock of Leon won over C&D last time, but that was an odd race to watch, with many of the runners off the bridle at an early stage. He’s not certain to build on that, or indeed to confirm form with Minstrels Gallery, who didn’t seem to give his running.
3.00 – 2m7f110y Intermediate Handicap Chase
Berkeley Barron is a risky betting proposition given he’s had physical problems in the past, and has moved yards, but the switch to Richard Phillips was designed to give this talented but fragile sort a greater degree of personal attention, and he was given a considerate ride on his chase debut at Chepstow. That venture was essentially a ploy to see whether he would stand the rigours of racing, and he’s reported to have done plenty of work since. He’s both bred to be a chaser, and has the looks to match that pedigree, so it’s to be hoped he can get back on track, and we find him hard to resist at a morning price of 25/1, despite the doubts.
Normally at this sort of price, we’d recommend an each way bet, but Berkeley Barron looks more of a win-or-bust type, and we’d not be surprised if he couldn’t get involved, as at Chepstow. On the upside, he’s dropped to his last winning mark over hurdles, and would be very well treated if rediscovering his spark.
David & Rory
Wednesday 25th November
|Recommended: 5.15 Kemp – 1pt win Buckland Beau @ 3/1 (general)- Lost
3.00 Wetb – 1pt win Peterpanopirateman @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills)- Lost
Total staked 2pts
Lingfield:2.00 – 6f Handicap
Although Seychellois is clearly the one to beat here, we think Rigoletto may represent some value as a confirmed pace-setter from a good draw in stall two. The main concern is whether he will be compromised by Birdie Queen, who looks the only other pace angle. If he avoids a speed duel, he could pinch this from the front, but a battle for the lead is likely to set things up for the favourite, who would ideally want an extra furlong.
3.40 – 6f maiden
We both like the chances of Picket Line in this maiden, and while the early 12/1 has gone (courtesy of Hugh Taylor’s ATR tipping column – damn you Hugh, damn you!), that price was positively nuts given he has the best piece of form on offer, and he may still represent a bet at current odds. Runner-up behind a rival now rated north of 90 at Kempton on his handicap debut, he was subsequently gelded, and looked a bit rusty when down the field at Newbury on his return from a break, albeit travelling well for a long way. He will benefit from a return to the AW (related to a host of polytrack performers), and there is no reason to doubt the solidity of his form. 3-y-o+ maidens at this time of year often take little winning, and he should never have been a double figure price. It’s tempting to feel we’ve missed the boat by latching on to one which has already been backed, but he still deserves serious consideration.
5.15 – 1m2f Handicap
We backed Buckland Beau over C&D last time, and he got a dreadful ride from Tom Queally, breaking well in a slowly run race, but gradually restrained into last place and forced to wait for non-existing openings up the rail in the straight. He finished full of running, and would surely have won with any luck. He ought to make amends tonight, although he’s not as attractive a price as he was a week ago.
6.45 – 1m4f Listed Race
Spanish Squeeze was an unlucky loser at Chelmsford last time, just getting the better of a battle with Bancnuanaheireann when his rider dropped his hands and got pipped in a photo (missed by the stewards, but clearly visible on the replay). That was an excellent effort from a horse having just his fourth lifetime start, and he will improve further. Martin Harley needs to be aware that Hamelin may get an easy lead, and doesn’t want to set Spanish Squeeze too much to do behind George Scott’s runner, but if he can launch his challenge at the right time, then he ought to prove a class apart, and he appeals as the type to win Group races before long, possibly in Dubai.
7.15 – 6f Handicap
Likeliest winner is Lancelot du Lac, but he’s been heavily backed, and represents no great value now. On the other hand, Triple Chocolate is hard to fancy on recent form, but is drifting to a huge price, and would have claims on the pick of his course form. He’s a straightforward ride, and while the sight of Rhiain Ingram’s name is enough to make professional punters blanch, that may also work in or favour in terms of price, and I’m inclined to have a few bob on if he gets toward 40/1 on the exchanges.
3.00 – 2m3f Handicap Hurdle
It may be worth giving a chance toPeterpanopirateman in this handicap, with his best efforts last season making him look well handicapped. He moved notably well on his handicap debut at Chepstow before failing to last home, and with a hood fitted for this return, he’s expected to show improved form. The track will suit his style, and the only worry I’d have is whether he might prove even better at shorter. If he’s going to stay this trip, though, Wetherby’s track will prove much more suitable than Chepstow.
Rory & David
Thursday 26th November
|Both selections ran well yesterday but the hunt for a winner continues. Newbury starts it’s three day Hennessy meeting
with a good card, but not really a punting one, and to that extent we’ll give it a miss. Better opportunities will
come Friday and Saturday there and to that extent keep one eye on inboxes this evening, please, as it’s likely we will
have an early bet for Friday.
Today 12.15 Southwell – 0.5pts e/w Candelita (50-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Coral)- Lost
3.05 Southwell – 1pt win Tellovoi (10-3 Stan James, 3-1 Bet365 fine)- Non Runner
12.15 – Coral Handicap 1m4f (class 6)
Cascading has been absolutely smashed up ever since prices came out late yesterday afternoon, and the current 11-8 top price now looks no value at all. It’s not as if there aren’t others with similar form on the surface – Amazing Blue Sky has a reasonable record here, Major Rowan has won here (albeit at shorter, just about gets this trip) and back in the day, Full Speed knew his way around here too. He’s arguably the most interesting as connections seem happy to keep him in the go at the age of 10, and that after a near 20-month absence since 2013, suggesting there could still be something left in the tank.
We mentioned Candelita last time out over hurdles and he didn’t run a bad race in the circumstances (was nicely backed), travelling pretty well but being unable to quicken in the soft ground, which has never been his preferred surface. His record at Southwell reads one win and one place from three starts here, and he’s certainly well enough handicapped to take a hand. It may be Clare Ellam needs another run or two before he’s ready to strike, but 50-1 is a bit of an insult to his chances in a race where little, if anything, has a solid profile.
12.45 – New UNIBET Racing App Download Handicap 6f (class 5)
No shortage of pace on for this sprint, with Llewellyn, Alpha Tauri, Cloak And Degas, Split The Atom and in particular Shades Of Silk all wanting the lead. Cloak And Degas turned in a much improved performance to win at Chelmsford in a first time visor, but whether he’ll repeat the trick is unsure – he ran well In first time blinkers only to run less well next time out.
Trying to find an angle into the race is difficult and in truth it’s a race best left alone for punting purposes.
1.20 – 32Red Nursery 1m (Class 6)
For me, it would have to be Mango Chutney or nothing, given how well he took to the surface last time out (was always likely on breeding he’d enjoy it) and this extra furling gives him every chance of reversing form with Piccacard, just ahead of him there but who looks much more a sporting type and this step up to a mile is far from certain to improve her. Plus, this is a quick turnaround for Piccacard after her second here in a claimed (ran well at the weights) and it remains to be seen how she will react to two quick runs.
The time clocked by Mango Chutney that day would be good enough to take this, with a repeat of it, and I suspect there is more to come from him today.
Southern Seas is well enough handicapped on her first start to take a hand if she acts on the surface, but that’s not a given, and Mango Chutney looks more solid (update, now a n/r)
3.05 – Download The Ladbrokes App Handicap 1m (class 6)
We gave a mention to Tellovoi on Tuesday as he had a chance to outclass a poor field as long as he could handle the drop back in trip to 6f. In the end he went off a ridiculous price and although he made good ground up in the last 100yds he couldn’t pick up one of those that set the pace in Coiste Bodhar, and had to settle for second. It goes without saying this step back up to a mile is certain to suit, and this quick turnaround isn’t an issue either, given he stands his racing well. It’s good to see Robert Winston on board too, as he has a good record for the yard (9-44) and I have to say I wasn’t delighted with the jockey change on Tuesday, with John Egan taking over late in the day. His chance is again obvious, with just enough pace in the race with Venus Grace, Fragile Earth and possibly Mac Tiernan to aim at. It’s another good opportunity to outclass a poor lot.
Uncle Brit is another having a quick reappearance after his third in an Amateurs event here Tuesday. As we said then, he’s the sort to hit the frame rather than win, so can’t really be entertained today. Trust Me Boy has a good record here but looks in the grip of the handicapper at present and needs to come down a few pounds. Phil a took to the surface well when second here on his Fibresand debut over C & D a fortnight ago, but a word of warning – a few from the Appleby yard are running below form and I’d be a little wary of them at present. It could be all is not quite right in the yard.
12.40 – County Gazette “Favourite For News” Handicap Hurdle 2m3f (class 5)
Low grade stuff but a few of interest. Ice Tres does have his own ideas about the game (can find little off the bridle) but gets a good chance to outclass a moderate looking bunch, having been dropped a pound for finishing fourth here over C & D last time out. That was in a considerably better class race than this, and it was the first time in a while he’d gone without a tongue tie, and it could be that whatever was hampering his finishing efforts may (and only may) have been sorted out.
Mexican Border is another I am convinced can win a race from his current mark. The ground here should be better than at Exeter last time where he made his ground up fine, but could not pick up again when asked. He’s in good hands and will win a race along the line, if not today.
Down the bottom of the handicap, Anglo Paddy races from a stone out of the handicap but that might not matter if Neil Mullholland has improved the horse. This is his first run for the yard after being highly tried on four starts over hurdles for Sean Curran and with all respect to Sean, I’d suggest Neil is a better trainer any day of the week. So if it turns out Anglo Paddy is a 90-rated horse, racing off what is effectively 74 today won’t matter a jot. To that extent, it’s interesting to see cheekpieces applied too, suggesting connections aren’t messing around. A market move would be of great interest.
The one I like though is Nigel Hawke’s Acadian, who I put up before his handicap debut at Chepstow in April as a likely improver for going handicapping. He travelled like an absolute dream that day, making a sweeping move around the outside of the field to take up the running early in the straight (traded evens in the run) only to weaken out of it. He’s the sort to do better again this season and will surely be able to build on that effort if fit and ready to go after a break, and that’s the question that puts us off a full bet today. Could be one to follow this season though, so put him in trackers.
|Today 12.15 Doncaster – 1pt win Night In MIlan (4-1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, take no lower than
7-2 - Lost
2.40 Newbury – 1pt win Roc D’Apsis (general 12-1, there are offers around on the race too)- Lost
5.45 Wolverhampton – 1pt win Royal Connoisseur (general 7-2)- Lost
5.15 – UNIBET Offer Daily Specials Handicap (5f 216yds) (Div 1)
The first of two divisions of this sprint, and both are interesting enough. There no out-and-out front runner for this one, and it perhaps offers a chance for Fortinbrass, horse mentioned in dispatches here before as one to keep an eye on this Winter, to jump out from stall 3 and make all. He’s not won a handicap for over 2 years now, but with John Balding that’s never much of a worry (Showboating a good example, a winner in April this year and hadn’t won since Oct 2013 before that) and Fortinbrass has given a bit of notice that his turn might not be far away. He ran well when hampered here over 5f (was beaten, but staying on) two starts back and then wasn’t suited by the way the race panned out next time, but now finds himself a huge 15lb lower than the start of this season. This C&D suits him (all wins at 6f) and if Shane Gray grasps the nettle from the outset he can make all and hold off the in-form Air Of York, an easy winner at Southwell in the week and just as effective here. If turned out again then he’s the one to beat, although the price will be prohibitive.
5.45 – UNIBET Offer Daily Specials Handicap (5f 216yds) (Div 2)
There’s likely to be another shortish priced favourite here in Zebs Lad, who got away quicker than is the norm last time out and made it pay with an easy victory, dominating the contest from halfway. A repeat of that would probably be good enough to win this, but the worry is that if he goes back to starting slowly he’ll find himself with a wall of horses to pass from stall 5 and luck in running will be required.
Much as in the first division (more so, in fact) there’s no front runner and so Royal Connoisseur, who broke well but couldn’t sustain the early gallop last time out, may be able to lead these and might take some catching if he does. With all respect to Hayley Irvine, who has ridden him (and ridden him well, to be fair) on two of his last three runs, Tony Hamilton taking over in the saddle looks no bad thing. Trip and track both ideal and he’s now 12lb lower than when starting the season (only just beaten in a race two grades higher than this, too). The small break will have done him good and he looks a solid selection to take this.
12.15 – Walls Magnum Classic Handicap Hurdle (3m)
Most of the races are named after frozen confectionery treats this afternoon – here’s hoping we can win some lolly. (Sorry.)
The one that really catches the eye here is Night In Milan, who would be a 2-1 chance if this were a chase rather than a hurdle. He’s had two runs to get himself fit this season, both under unsuitable conditions (soft ground both times) and on neither occasion was he wearing the blinkers he needs to show his best. Last years Grimthorpe Chase winner from a mark of 136, his record at Doncaster is much better than anywhere else (although Kelso runs it close) and he has his preferred good ground today as well. The blinkers go back on, and there can be no doubt that from a mark almost 2 stones lower than his chase mark, he has an outstanding chance of collecting here. The Grand National will remain his main target for the season and as such, he can win this without doing his chase mark any damage at all.
Malin Bay could be a danger from what looks a decent mark. He ran well after his summer break on his reappearance at Ayr, getting a bit tired late in the contest, and he will come in for that. Good ground is an absolute necessity for him, and the only worry I have is that he might be a Spring horse. Nevertheless, he looks the biggest danger.
12.45 – Cadbury Flake 99 Novices Handicap Hurdle.
Plenty of these you couldn’t have for one reason or another, not least favourite Dragon City, not with Charlie Mann’s running so dreadfully at present. Polarbrook better on softer ground, Impeccability still a maiden after 27 starts, and anything with a modicum of improvement can take this. As such,Attention Please makes some appeal. Having only had the four handicap starts, and this slight drop back in trip looks a sound move after not quite getting home over two furlongs further in much softer ground at Wetherby last time. Another 2lb drop for that effort won’t hurt either and the yard landed a gamble with a similar sort in Mac N Cheese at Wetherby in the week. Watch the market.
2.40 – Bet365 Open Handicap Chase (2m3f 187yds)
We’re both of the opinion this can be narrowed down to a few. Niceonefrankie will be popular, given he’s a Venetia horse that tends to win early in the season, and still looks on a winnable mark, but he’s been well enough found in the market this morning.
Little Jon is still in our radar as one to land a decent prize this season but the form of the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard is not where you’d like it to be, so he’s one for another day.
The one neither of us can understand the big price of this morning is Roc D’Apsis, who has been a bit inconsistent to date but he’s only 6 and if his latest start is anything to go by, may have turned a corner. That Stratford form has received boosts from both the fifth, Keel Haul, and sixth, Jayo Time, since, and he disposed of them (and the rest) with relative ease, always travelling well and finding plenty in the latter stages. A 10lb rise looks fair for that and with the promise of more to come, is the selection.
David & Rory
2.05 Newcastle – 1pt win Beltor (general 9-1, use 365 if possible for free bet offer if a winner)- Lost
1.35 Bangor – 1pt win Union Jack D’Ycy (7-1 Skybet, Bet Vctor, Hills)- Won +8 points (BOG)
1.35 Bangor – 1pt win Hellorboston (12-1 Hills, general 11-1 fine but no lower)- Lost
3.00 Newbury – 1pt e/w Ned Stark (general 11-1, use Bet365 for the free bet offer)- Lost
12.45 Newbury – 1pt win Wadswick Court (general 10-1)- Lost
1.30 – Marriott Gosforth Park Handicap Chase 2m4f 19yds
I’m not keen on Frankie’s Promise at all here. I have no doubt at all that the horse has a big engine and if jumping proficiently but that latter point is a huge worry today. He was never the most fluent over hurdles and on his most recent chase start, was awfully careful at the back of the field before quickening through between the last couple to go and win his race. Sadly, for him, another mistake got rid of Brian Harding at the last when looking the likely winner, not by any means his first serious mistake.
So, this is hardly a good ride for a jockey low on confidence and in Lucy Alexander, that’s exactly what we have. A few horrid falls have clearly dented her confidence and she’s really not helping horses at fences. I can see Frankies Promise being held up again but not really being able to get into the contest at all today.
The obvious one looks to be Swing Hard, for whom Sue Smith will undoubtedly have tuned up for a repeat effort at winning a contest he took back in 2013. The soft ground won’t be an issue and it’s probably the case he’s needed all three runs this year to get fit.
The problem with putting him up at 3-1 is his inconsistency, with an ability to seemingly throw in bad runs at will. If he’s on song, he will probably win, but he can do so without out money on at that price.
2.05 – StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle 2m98yds
A tricky race, muddied a little by quick reappearances by Irving and Top Notch. In the case of Irving, it’s clear to see why – his form almost always tails off as the season progresses and after today, there’s very little for him to aim at. So Paul Nicholls might as well run him, despite only having had a week to get over his Haydock win.
Top Notch is a little more difficult to place. It may be he’s simply not as good as he appeared to be last season, and Nicky running one again so quickly is quite an unusual event. We simply don’t know where we are with him at the moment – today will tell us more.
Wicklow Brave would appear to be the best horse at the weights but a slowly run race may not play to his strengths, and it’s worth remembering Arctic Fire was beaten in this last year when it turned into a sprint too. The two are quite similar in profile and he makes little appeal at the price.
The one that does is Beltor, a horse both Rory and I liked a lot last season. He looked a horse of some talent when tanking through the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton in February, only having to be nudged out hands and heels to pulverise some useful sorts, and his running in the Triumph was too bad to be true. To that end, the hood that he wore at Cheltenham is removed, and if it comes to s speed race, he’s as much as any in the race. It’s also worth pointing out connections are sacrificing what appears to be a lenient handicap mark of 143 to run here – they’re either lunatics, or geniuses…..
There’s even a small case to be made for Purple Bay at 25-1, despite the form of the John Ferguson yard not being what it was. The drop back to two miles looks a plus, and he’s really not far behind these on the best of his form. If the first time blinkers help him concentrate better, he’s not a hopeless cause.
1.35 Betfair Supports Walking Courses Handicap Chase 3m
This 3m contest in what promises to be near-unraceable ground has the hallmarks of a last-man-standing contest, and as such those towards the front of the market make little appeal. Ready Token probably wants quicker ground, Bernardelli has stamina to prove, and for the fifth time running jumping let Safran De Cotte down at Chepstow last time out. Express Du Berlais is another with little good form with cut and it may well pay to concentrate on the outsiders here.
The Venetia angle (chaser back off a break) makes Union Jack D’Ycy of obvious interest. Only 2lb higher than his last winning mark, he stays well in heavy ground and will surely be fit for this. To a level stake tenner the Venetia system (when applied to the late Autumn/early Winter period) paid
The other to look at here comes from a very unfashionable yard at present, that of Donald McCain. The general consensus is Donald can’t train winners any more but in truth, since the Rooney weight was lifted from his shoulders, his runners have run much more to form and of his last ten runners, only one has run poorly. Whisper it for fear of ridicule, but it could be a mini-revival is on the cards over the next couple of months and Hellorboston could keep the ball rolling here. He simply loves heavy ground and has win fresh before, and looks on a reasonable mark. As he will be ignored in the betting, he’s already a decent price and may drift even further.
Those looking for a big payout might want to include Pinerolo in exotics as well – on heavy ground, he’s never been out of the frame, and Ryan Day is an interesting booking given he’s now with Sue Smith, and Sue had Pinerolo previously. It may be Ryan already knows the horse well. Possibly a pound or two too high in the weights, but far more likely to handle conditions than a few here.
2.30 – Betdaq.com £100 Casino Bonus Handicap Hurdle 2m3f
Boruma deserves a mention here having caught the eye last time out at Carlisle. Never really asked for maximum effort there, he stayed on nicely to finish third, and with that run under his belt (first for four months) should strip fitter here. He’s 1-1 over this C&D and ideally wants this good ground (travels well on it), and the only couple of things that stop us making him a full bet are the lack of winners from the yard (only three winners over jumps since the beginning of June, and that from over 70 runners) and that Boruma might want a drop in grade – this looks a little too hot for him. Nevertheless, one to keep a very close eye on, especially when the yard find some form.
12.20 Betdaq.Com – Serious About Horses Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (3m6y)
Trainer Peter Maddison worked wonders with a homebred gelding called Lothian Falcon a few years ago (made the frame in the Scottish National and bet365 Gold Cup), and he’s got another progressive chaser on his hands with Sgt Bull Berry, a winner three times this season already. The son of Alflora showed little in his early starts, but this rangy homebred has always needed time – his dam was eight years old before she set foot on a racecourse, but went on to win twice from a handful of starts in hunter chases as well as in point to points.
Sgt Bull Berry is still rather unfurnished, and it’s no surprise he’s taken an age to find his feet, while his inconsistent profile is that of a horses who is still at a developmental stage. He bounced back from a poor effort at Wetherby when scoring at Southwell on his most recent outing, and while that was a very uncompetitive event, he’s been given a real chance by the handicapper, and is only seven pounds higher in the weights than for the first of his wins. It’s worth noting two further points regarding his chances here – one is that he won at Southwell despite his girth having slipped back markedly towards his loins, while he’s got an entry at the same track on Tuesday, for which he’d be unpenalised.
12.45 Bet365.Com Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2m92y)
Emma Lavelle has a fine record when switching her horses from hurdles to fences, with the likes of Andy Kelly and successful in handicaps on their respective chase debuts, and in Javert she has a very promising recruit to the larger obstacles. Once-raced in points, he gained a mark with a trio of outings over timber, but he looked a totally different proposition when making just about all on his return at Chepstow, jumping well on his first start over fences, and showing his mark to be a very lenient one. He is bred for further than two miles, but is quite a free-goer, and may be best kept to this sort of trip for the time being. As at Chepstow, he will wear a hood and be partnered by Sean Bowen.
This is clearly a deeper race than the one he won at the beginning of the month, and of his rivals, I respect the chances of Wadswick Court more than most. Neil Mulholland has just a modest strike rate in recent weeks, but his horses give the distinct impression that they about to hit form, and the young trainer is clearly adapting a patient approach to the season which makes him a handler to follow in the longer term. Beaten by Calipto on his chase bow at Fontwell, Wadswick Court impressed with his jumping, and gave the distinct impression he would find the greater improvement of the pair. He may well be overlooked in the market, and merits a saver. Arzal is also respected, but the oddsmakers have cottoned on to his excellent trainer, and it’s doubtful that any value will be offered on him here.
1.15 Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (2m6f93y)
I’ll be watching this race with particular interest as my Welsh National fancy Midnight Prayer makes his first appearance since running in last year’s Hennessy, and while he will surely find the trip too short, he will find a run around Newbury putting him spot on for Chepstow’s festive feature. Of more interest as far as this prize goes, however, is Si C’etait Vrai, who makes his debut for Neil Mulholland having shown very useful form as a novice for the late Dessie Hughes. The Robin des Champs gelding remains lightly raced for his age, and has a workable mark starting out for his new yard. A wide-margin winner at Fairyhouse when last seen, he would have been a leading contender for the National Hunt Chase won by Midnight Prayer, and has reportedly been pleasing in his preparation for this. Mulholland’s horses often improve for a run or two, but I’d be surprised if Si C’etait Vrai isn’t pretty straight given where he’s starting out.
There are plenty of dangers, notably the hat-trick seeking Aloomomo and Cheltenham disappointment La Vaticane, who is surely better than her finishing position suggested at the Open Meeting. Abracadabra Sivola is another who is worth a second look, with his defeat at the hands of Native River at Exeter looking much better after the winner landed a Grade 2 novice here on Thursday.
3.00 Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (3m1f214y)
While it’s clearly a pity that Coneygree has been unable to take up his entry, the Hennessy is still a top-quality affair which may yet feature a Gold Cup winner. The horse who carries the most expectation is Saphir du Rheu, who was favourite to beat Coneygree on both occasions the pair met over fences last term, only for the Nicholls runner to fall foul of the fences. That suggests that Andy Stewart’s grey is a clumsy sort, much like Big Buck’s, who unseated Sam Thomas in this race before being returned to hurdles with tremendous effect. There is clearly a parallel between the pair, with Saphir du Rheu taking the World Hurdle route in the spring and running a huge race to finish second. Unlike Big Buck’s, however, he is every inch the chaser on looks and approach, and he was foot perfect in dispatching The Young Master when the pair reappeared over fences at Carlisle. He’s a hugely exciting young chaser, and his trainer’s decision to miss the RSA with him was a prescient one. He’s now forced to carry top weight, but fully deserves that impost, and is not opposed lightly.
On the other hand, this is a race which begs for an each-way involvement, and with questions over many of these, I’ll be having a win and place interest in Ned Stark, who may appear his stable’s neglected, but who has plenty going for him. A second-season chaser who landed the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase last season, he caught the eye on his return at Ascot, and will be better suited by track and trip here. Alan King brought two strong fancies to the race a year ago, including Smad Place, but admitted in retrospect that it was an error to come to Newbury without a prep race. He’s heeded his own counsel this time around, and Smad Place again has a solid chance having made all the running at Kempton a few weeks ago. He’s respected, but is well found in the market now, and 12/1 and bigger about course winner Ned Stark is more appealing.
Sunday 29th NovemeberNo horse racing tips today.
Total number of horse racing tips :17
Total Points Profit : -10
Total Profit £10 per point : -£100
Return on investment :-58%
Summary : It was not the best of weeks for the horse racing tipsters who only managed to produce the one winner from 17 tips. the time and effort that goes into this service is clear to see and previous results show that this could of just been a off week from them. however we can only judge on what we see and a minus 10 profit over 7 days is not great. I will look forward to running another 7 day live trial with racing consultants late next year to see if they can produce a better performance.