The Jumps Punter 7 day live trial - Horse Racing Tipster

Tipsters REview - 02-Jan-2017

On Live trial this week : The Jumps Punter

Service type: Horse Racing Tipster

Trial type - 7 day live trial

Week Starting - 26/12/2016

Website: www.tipstersempire.co.uk

Cost : £30 P/M

Service Offers : £7 first month

Trial Info : 7 day live trial with horse racing tipster The Jumps Punter from the Tipsters empire sports betting platform. The jumps punter will send out his horse racing tips the morning of each days racing. Each tip will come with full reasoning and a full summary the following day will be provided. The jumps punters horse racing tips will come with their own staking plan with win and each way singles advised.


Monday - Day 1

12.15 Huntingdon Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

I narrowed it down to three horses.

Letemgo wasn't best placed last time over a shorter trip than today but he ran on well. He as won over 3m at Kempton in the past with a good front running performance. He goes on any ground and is nicely back down the handicap having won off 109 and 116 in the past. He races off 105 here. I do just feel there is slightly better form elsewhere.

American Life as gone well on good ground in the past but in recent times his best form as come on soft or heavy going which is a concern here. He is a horse that is in the notebook as I backed him at Haydock around this time last year when he won easy. He as come nicely back down the handicap and can bounce back to form at any point.

While his early season form isn't great I do feel he as been trained to peak around this time of the year again. He won at Haydock last year off a handicap mark of 102 he races here off 88 which makes him a really well handicapped horse. He stays well and as some nice form in the past. The going is the concern for me but the visor and tongue tie combination that works well is back on. I can't not back him given the distance his past form his current handicap mark and the fact the visor is back on. With eight runners and his current price, I'm going to back him each way.

Cadeau George ran well at Bangor last time on his first start for some time. I thought he stuck on really well over a trip that given the nature of the course would have been on the short side for him. He is currently off the same handicap mark that he as won off in the past and once put over fences went on to win off 120 and just get beat off 128. He stays really well and his overall level of form is good. If he can build on the run from last time I feel he as every chance here. For me, he as the best form in the race.

Cadeau George 2pt Win 5/2 @ Coral  - Won +9 (BOG)
American Life 1pt Each Way 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair - Lost

1.05 Wincanton Handicap Chase

Somchine and Wings Of Smoke have similar profiles in which they travel well through their races but don't always find as much when asked for an effort both are stepping back down in trip here which could help but I feel for either to win they have to be much better than their rivals and their class come's to the fore in the latter part of the race. This for me won't happen here.

Jaunty Inflight as improved for the switch in stables the run possible come too soon for him last time but for me his level of form even since he switched stables isn't good enough to win this. He would need to find more improvement and I'm not sure he will.
Dusky Lark as been in good form lately and as been running over slightly further for me the drop in trip will suit him. He ran at Ascot 9 days ago and ran a good race in a competitive handicap with today's claiming jockey on board he is 4lb lower in the handicap than last time.

If he runs to the same level here I think he will take all the beating. His jumpingcan sometimes let him down but he is not short on ability. I expect him to sit just in behind the front running Notarfbad and hopefully when he hit's the front the likes of Somchine and Wings Of Smoke poor attitudes will come into play and Dusky Lark will show to much guts and determination for them to get past him.

Dusky Lark 2pt Win 2/1 @ Bet 365 & Bet Victor - Lost

1.45 Fontwell Handicap Chase

Mercian King as been in good form since switching stables. He may have won last time if he hadn't got the last wrong but it wasn't as if he was travelling all over the winner Arquebusier the latter named we can link form with Venetian Lad and on calculations on past form and today's weights Venetian Lad as the beating of Mercian King.
Bishops Court as made bad mistakes in the latter part of his two chase races which as been a shame as in both them races up until that point he had jumpedwell. He isn't the easiest of horses he travels through his races well but once he hits the front or sees daylight he just doesn't want to know. Cheek pieces are added today along with the Hood and if they help him firstly to concentrate in the latter part of his races and give him the confidence to go to the front on his own then the level of form he as shown the last twice he as every chance of winning this. But he comes here 0 - 13 under rules and it's not a given that the cheek pieces will have the desired effect.

Venetian Lad is a course specialist. He won this race two years ago albeit a much weaker race. On first look I felt the trip would be on the short side for him here but after looking at a few of his past runs I'm not sure that is the case over 2m 3f or 2m 5f he races the same in which he as to be ridden some way out and looks like being totally outpaced before finding a second wind and running on strongly late on. Given he is over a slightly shorter trip than usual I expect they will ride him more prominent and he just seems to come alive around here. He is nicely handicapped having last won off 1lb higher mark than today. I felt he ran well to a degree last time in a stronger race than today. At the price, I think there are far worse 16/1 shots about than him here. I'm going to take a chance that he will keep finding for pressure and add to his fine course record.

Venetian Lad 2pt Win 16/1 @ Sky Bet & Coral - Lost

1.50 Wetherby Handicap Chase

Blaklion I felt ran a cracking race in the Hennessey when last seen. He jumpedand travelled well for a long way it was a really good performance. He was a decent novice last season winning the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival on good ground he was also a course and distance winner earlier on in the season on heavy ground. He is 4lb lower in the handicap than last time and I just feel if he shows the same level of form here that he did last time then he is the one they all have to beat.

Blaklion 2pt Win 4/1 @ William Hill - Lost

2.40 Kempton Christmas Hurdle

On the podcast, i put up Vroum Vroum Mag as my Christmas nap, unfortunately, she never made the final declarations but seen as it's Christmas at the end of this piece I will finish with my Boxing Day Christmas nap.
The New One put up a good front running performance last time to beat My Tent Or Yours who he had to give 8lb to. When watching the race I couldn't knock the performance from The New One but I also couldn't help feeling that My Tent Or Yours is one of them horses that more times than not fails to find as much off the bridle. The New One I expect to lead again and he as shown a liking to Kempton in the past having won round here a few times in the past I expect him to put up another bold show.
Yanworth, however, is a young horse I really like I know it looks like he needs further and there was talk of him stepping up in trip. Last time I was left with the impression the jockey felt he would win easy he travelled through the race well but he did have to battle late on it was is first run of the season and I don't quite think they thought the horse in second would give him as much of a fight as what he did. The horse in second as since run well in the Long Walk Hurdle so it wasn't a particularly bad run taking into account it was his first run of the season. Plenty of good horses have been beaten first time out.
Ok so why don't I feel the step back down in trip will be a problem for me it's simple. One it's not as if he hasn't won over 2m in the past and two it's the way he travels through his races he travels so strong that it's not like he gets outpaced before staying on late. The jockey knows this horse well and given how powerfully he travels he can have him in the right position far enough out to make this trip, not an issue. In these top class races like this, i'm always weary of front running horses as they can set races up for horses that like to come from off a fast pace I think The New One could be vulnerable here.

Yanworth 2pt Win 11/8 @ Bet Victor & Paddy Power - Won +2.75

I haven't put a selection up for the King George my thoughts can be found on the Podcast. It looks a really cracking race I didn't think Thistlecracks jumpingwas bad at Newbury last time but this is his first real jumping test and we will see for definite if his jumping stands the test. There is absolutely know doubt he as a massive engine he made some graded hurdlers look like handicappers last year but there is still that doubt about his jumping at the highest level yet.

Cue Card was the horse I sided with on the Podcast and the only reason was because he as been there and done it and he is sure to make this a realjumping test for Thistlecrack. I think this will be a brilliant race to watch and will be won on the jumping. My end conclusion given prices was i'm not going to get involved it's a race I can enjoy without any financial interest.

Christmas NAP

My nap for Boxing Day would have to be Blaklion in the 1.50 at Wetherby I really liked the way he ran in the Hennessey last time and if he can build on that performance then he is sure to give us a good run for our money.

That's all for Boxing Day hope you have enjoyed the read. I'll be back on Tuesday 27th December for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow plus racing from Kempton and Wetherby.

I'd also like to point you in the direction of our Bumper Christmas Podcast which is live now along with our Big Race Preview on our website for the King George. Both are reall well put together and I hope you enjoy them both.

Summary

Our first selection yesterday was a winning one in the shape of Cadeau George who was prominent early on before getting outpaced but showed a really good attitude to get back up late on. To top it all off he was advised at 5/2 and drifted to a sp of 7/2. In the same race, we had American Life who was backed from 8/1 into 9/2 but unfortunately fell at the fifth he appeared none the worse for the fall and will live to fight another day.

We headed over to Wincanton for are third selection Dusky Lark who could only manage a well held second. The winner clearly benefited from the step back down in trip and ran out an easy winner.

Venetian Lad was disappointing at Fontwell the winner clearly benefitted from the fitting of cheekpieces and now he as got his head in front i do feel he could be dangerous even once reassessed.

Blaklion finished third at Wetherby I was expected better from him given how he had shaped in the Hennessey on his previous start and was a little disappointed with his performance.

Our last bet of the day was Yanworth who showed his class on this drop back down in trip to land the Christmas Hurdle. We know he wants further than this but to be able to drop back down in trip here and pull away from his rivals late on shows that he as that touch of class about him. He is a horse that I have a lot of time for. He hasn't been that impressive in both his wins this season but he as got the job done and that's what matters.

Tuesday - Day 2

2.20 Kempton Desert Orchid Chase

Special Tiara won this race back in 2014. His first run that season he was well beaten on his second start he won this race. He is a horse that seems to need his first start of the season so I'm not to bothered by his performance last time and expect him to have come on plenty for the run. Sire De Grugy arrives here in really good form having finished second in the Tingle Creek last time. He as to give Special Tiara 10lb today. If we go back to last season in the Tingle Creek off level weights Sire De Grugy beat Special Tiara by 3/4 lengths given today's weight differences I'm struggling to see Sire De Grugy being able to give his old rival that much weight and beat him.


Special Tiara 2pt Win 10/11 @ Bet 365 & William Hill - Won +1.8

3.15 Chepstow Handicap Chase

Aso arrives here with the best recent form. He is 3lb higher in the handicap than when finishing second in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last time and a similar performance for me sees him win this race.

Aso 2pt Win 7/4 @ Bet 365 & William Hill - Won +3.5

3.30 Kempton Handicap Chase

Bally Longford was having his first try over 3m plus last time at Cheltenham given the way he travelled up until jumping the last fence he looked a horse nicely ahead of his handicap mark. He runs today off the same handicap mark as last time. He drops back down two furlongs in trip today and given how he ran last time until one furlong out the shorter trip will suit him perfect here coupled with the fact this is a much less demanding
course than last time.

The form from last time is strong enough for him to win this race and I just couldn't help feel after the run last time he was a horse worth keeping an eye out for. He ticks all the boxes for me and I expect a good show from him.

Bally Longford 2pt Win 7/2 @ Bet 365 & Bet Victor - Lost

Summary

I wasn't overly impressed with the performance from Special Tiara his chance was made easier with the fall of Sire De Grugy and given how he won I'm not overly sure he would have beaten Sire De Grugy but jumping is the name of the game and the selection jumped round well and showed a good attitude when challenged. However, he wouldn't be a horse I'd be rushing out to back next time in the top grade one races.

Aso, was the second winner of the afternoon at Chepstow it took a while to master the eventual runner up Drumlee Sunset and he did idle when in front but he is a consistent type who was entitled to win after two good efforts in strong handicaps this season and it was nice to see his consistency be rewarded.

Bally Longford wasn't able to build on his good run the time before at Cheltenham he appeared to lose ground at his fences and overall it was a disappointing run from him.

Wednesday - Day 3

2.10 Catterick Handicap Chase

Thankyou Very Much arrives here having been in good form lately but is now another 7lb higher for her win last time while she is in good form it wasn't the greatest of races last time and I'm happy to take her on.

Virnon ran well enough last time at Hexham the conditions where very testing that day and it was a pleasing run. The ground will be much more quicker today given his overall profile that isn't going to be in his favour.

The Herds Garden ran well on his first start for his new trainer three starts back and that level of form catches my eye. Next time at Kelso he ran well until turning for home where he weakened out of contention. He was stepped up in trip last time where I felt until falling he hadn't jumped that bad. It was still a fair way out but he was travelling as well as anything at that point. He drops back down in trip today. This is his easiest race since coming over from Ireland and he showed enough on his run at Carlisle to think he can win this race. I feel with dropping him back down in trip that connections will give him more of an attacking ride and I do feel if this tactic is used then it will work well.

The Herds Garden 2pt Win 7/2 @ Bet Victor & Ladbrokes - NR

3.00 Leopardstown Lexus Chase

More Of That takes my interest here. Firstly going back to the start of the season when the trainer made the comment he was the best horse he had trained. On the back of that comment, i was expecting a really good show from him in the Bet Victor Gold Cup on his first start of the season which never happened. I felt he showed more last time at Huntingdon in the Peterborough Chase the trip was on the short side but I was left with the impression he would come on again for that outing.

From his latest runs he isn't an obvious choice but given the owners, horses can bounce back to form from nowhere a good example of this being Eastlake the other week and Regal Encore bouncing back to form at Ascot to win the big Saturday handicap a couple of weeks back. So is his form so far this season as big a worry given how Eastlake and Regal Encore have performed recently I'd say not. Sometimes we have to look at how connections work not just the form book.

We know this horse on his day is good having won a World Hurdle and being the only horse to beat Annie Power also he as been placed in the RSA last season having had problems during in the race that run wasn't that bad considering. Given the trainer comments and that he added he was being aimed at the Gold Cup then for me this now looks like it as been his first target of the season with being one of the races targetted by trainers with there horses on the road to the Gold Cup in March.

More Of That arrives here wearing first time cheek pieces I have to say this to me looks like a plot and I'm more than happy to take the current prices about him each way as I think we will see the first real signs this season of what this horse is capable of today.

More Of That 1pt Each Way 16/1 @ Bet 365 & Coral both pay 3 places and 1/4 odds for a place. - Lost

3.10 Leicester Novice Chase

Master Dee was in good form when last seen and gets his ground today. He likes to make all the running and stays well. The course will be fine and he looks to be the right favourite.

However, I think Zarib with the first time blinkers on his an interesting runner. This horse in the past appears to have plenty of ability but you have to question his attitude. I feel the blinkers could be the key to him here he gets 10lb from Master Dee and he as the past form to make his present felt here. We know he stays well the ground won't be a problem he ran well on the flat at Goodwood on good ground. He is a frustrating horse as from past form you can tell there is plenty of ability there if the blinkers have the desired effect then I think we could see a nice performance from him here.

Zarib 2pt Win 5/2 @ Paddy Power & Ladbrokes - Won +5

Summary

Catterick was abandoned yesterday which left us with two selections.

More Of That I felt jumped and travelled well throughout the race and it was by far his best run of the season. He clearly held every chance if good enough but came up short.

Zarib travelled well in behind the eventual second horse he jumped well for most part of the race but looked booked for second jumping the last fence until he found a second wind and flew home to win by 1/2 length. I have no doubt the application of blinkers had something to do with this performance.

 

Thursday - Day 4

 

12.25 Doncaster Handicap Chase

 

Valseur Du Granval and Nicolas Chauvin have closely matched form through Authorized Too and I'dliketheoption I can link the form in twice and both times Valseur Du Granval comes out on top only slightly but also when watching replays of Nicolas Chauvin I'm not overly keen on his attitude he doesn't look the easiest of rides and in a battle he wouldn't be the horse I'd want to be on.

Valseur Du Granval as had his jumping problems in the past and does tend to hit one. But he has progressed nicely and it was a good run from him at Newbury last time he races off the same handicap mark here and a repeat of that for me would see him win this race.

Valseur Du Granval 2pt Win 2/1 @ Bet 365 & Bet Victor - Lost

1.40 Kelso Handicap Chase

A few of these arrive here a little to high in the handicap in my opinion.

Caraline won this race last year off an 18lb lower handicap mark. She did go on to win off a handicap mark of 110 later on but that form was nothing special. She races off 112 today but she hit a purple patch last year and I do sometimes feel horses can outrun their handicap marks when in that kind of form after a break they can struggle to recapture the form which then leaves them to high in the weigths. While she ran well to a point last time on seasonal reappearance I'm just not sure about her chances off her current mark.

Gold Opera won last time in a first time visor off a handicap mark of 108 he races off 120 today and looking at his overall profile he looks to be too high in the handicap now.

Turtle Watch is a horse I like he as a couple of long absences in his career but there are two pieces of hurdles form I like the Ayr run in April 2015 where he made a mistake around half way and I also felt he was held up to far off the pace before staying on and meeting trouble in running in the latter part of the race next time at Kelso he ran out an easy winner. Both them runs where off a handicap mark of 110 he runs today over fences off 112 and to me on them two peices of hurdles form looks nicely ahead of his handicap mark. Last time on his first start over fences I felt he jumped ok until the fence in which he fell I've watched the replay a few times and it looked to me like Las Tunas who was just in front of him edged slightly left jumping the fence like he had done a few times in the race and Turtle Watch jumped into the back of him. On that evidence, i'm not overly concerned about the f next to his form. Also looking at his past form he as won at Kelso twice and Carlisle once both courses being uphill finishes so he as a clear liking for this type of course. On his hurdles form, he is well handicapped on the Ayr run that form is good enough to win this. We know this course will suit him well the ground won't be a problem and the trainer's horses are running well. I think he is interesting here on his second start over fences.

Turtle Watch 2pt Win 11/2 @ Bet 365 & Bet Victor - Lost

2.40 Doncaster Handicap Hurdle

Ami Desbois as improved since fitted with a Tongue Tie he looked well ahead of his handicap mark when winning at Haydock and next time in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham ran a really good race to finish second he galloped all the way to the line that day. He as gone up a further 7lb for last time but I feel the level of form he showed there is good and he looks a horse to keep on the right side of at the moment.

Ami Desbois 2pt Win 7/2 @ Bet Victor & Paddy Power - NR

2.45 Kelso Handicap Chase

Just Georgie ran better than his finishing position suggests at Hexham last time in really testing conditions. He jumped well out in front and even though he arrives here 0 - 10 under rules showed no signs of quirkiness. He was highly tried at times over hurdles last season and I now feel they have found his level in handicap company. He isn't overlooked lightly.

However Marlee Massie jumped well on her first start over fences last time she as gone up 4lb for that win and had Calivigny and Ascot De Bruyere in behind her and based on the way she stayed on that day I think a 4lb rise in the handicap won't be a problem when asked to go and win her race she did and she looks a horse who can progress further. I don't see the other two horses turning the form around. Based on that win last time I felt there was more to come from her over fences.

Marlee Massie 2pt Win 7/2 @ Bet Victor & Ladbrokes - Lost

That's all for today

The Jumps Punter

 

Summary

Ami Desbois was a non runner yesterday which left us with three selections.
Valseur Du Granval I didn't think got the best of rides he was held up to far back when the pace lifted whether the jockey felt the other runners would come back to him I don't know but I was left with the impression he didn't give the horse the best chance of winning.

Turtle Watch was well backed I thought he jumped well but didn't look the easiest of rides at times. I do feel off this current handicap mark there is a race to be won with him soon.

Marlee Massie didn't really go with any enthusiasm at any point in the race and it was a poor run from her given she was only 4lb higher in the handicap for her win the time before.

Friday - Day 5

2.30 Taunton Novice Handicap Chase

Altesse De Guye ran at Uttoxeter last time on her first chase start visibility wasn't great but on what I saw she jumped well and stayed on nicely. The longer trip today will certainly help her and off her hurdles form her handicap mark and level of form are good enough to win this. She won a handicap hurdle off a 1lb lower handicap mark than today over a similar trip as today she travelled really well that day and a repeat of that performance would see her go very close here.

Altesse De Guye 2pt Win 2/1 @ Coral & Betvictor - Lost

3.00 Taunton Mares Novice Hurdle

We have two horses who are likely to improve with the more racing they have in Coillte Lass and Theatre Territory the latter named horse we can link form with Dusky Legend through Copper Kay with Dusky Legend coming out on top.

Dusky Legend has some really nice pieces of form she finished second in the Mares Novice Hurdle at last year's Cheltenham Festival. Since then she has won twice and finished second last time beaten by this year's current favourite for the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. While she is a short price favourite I have seen much worse even money horses around than her. I think even at this price she represents value she's been there done it and got the form in the book and as the beating on past linked form of one of her market rivals. Trip and ground will be fine for her and her trainer is in good form.

Dusky Legend 2pt Win10/11 generally - Lost

That's all for today.

Summary

Two seconds yesterday our first runner Altesse De Guye jumped and travelled well I couldn't knock her performance. I was however left frustrated by the result the winner Behind The Wire had been beaten by Altesse De Guye last time at Uttoxeter by 29 lengths that was his first start of the season but even so as a tipster while you expect horses to improve on their first outings of the season to turn a 29 length defeat into a 2 length victory does leave you feeling frustrated.

Dusky Legend was beaten by an improving horse. Given her level of form, I still felt it would take a bit from one of the exposed horse's to beat her but I couldn't knock the winner she beat Dusky Legend fair and square.

 

Saturday - Day 6

12.05 Uttoxeter Handicap Hurdle

American Life was a horse we backed each way on Boxing Day he was well backed before the off but only got as far as the fifth hurdle he was jumping out to his left at the hurdles and I feel that had something to do with the fall in 53 runs over hurdles he as fell twice. After that, he got up galloped on riderless and jumped a few hurdles as well along the way. He appeared none the worse for the fall and it clearly hadn't knocked his confidence having jumped some hurdles after the fall.

Connections clearly felt he had turned a corner last time due to the money that came for him before the off and while it was a small field he was up against better horses than what he faces today.I think he as everything in his favour today the trip and ground will be perfect. He is really well handicapped his last win came off a handicap mark of 102 where he won easily. He races today taking jockeys claim into account off 93. He drops back down to class 5 level in the past he as won at class 3 and 4 level. The visor and tongue tie combination are on which appears to bring out the best in him. The fact he only run five days ago doesn't concern me as in the past he as won after a five day break.I'm expecting a really good run from him today.

American Life 2pt Win 4/1 @ Bet 365 & Ladbrokes - Lost

1.50 Newbury Challow Hurdle

Robin Roe left a favourable impression with me when winning at Aintree last time the horse that finished second that day No Comment as since come out and won twice. This is obviously a big step up in class for him now but given how he won at Aintree I think he can take it in his stride. It's interesting that connections have not run him since Aintree over two months ago. Straight after the Aintree win the target was this race and while this looks a good race and plenty of his rivals have soon some nice pieces of form this season I just feel he is a really smart exciting novice this season.

Robin Roe 2pt Win7/4 @ Bet 365 & Bet Victor - Lost

That's all for today. There is plenty of racing tomorrow and we get our first look at racing from ITV.

Just like to finish by wishing you all the best for the New Year.

The Jumps Punter

Summary

American Life could only manage fourth which was disappointing as I felt he had everything in his favour to run a big race.

Robin Roe was still to be asked any questions when he fell I'm sure there will be other days with him.

 

Sunday - Day 8

1.40 Musselburgh Handicap Chase

Cold March takes my interest here in first time blinkers. He had a good record in France when tried in cheekpieces. It's the first time he runs in headgear in this country which I think could make all the difference. He didn't run to bad on his first start this season but disappointed last time at Cheltenham but I feel he's a much better horse going right handed his record in this country on left handed courses is poor. So I expect him to put in a much better show going back right handed. He as some really good form in handicaps at this level. The trip will be fine and so will the ground. I just feel the blinkers as been the missing link to this horse.

Cold March 2pt Win 11/2 @ William Hill - Won +11

2.45 Catterick Handicap Chase

Witness hasn't been running to bad over 2m in recent runs but as looked in need of this step up in trip and i think he is interesting now up in trip. He as caught the eye on more than one occasion. He appeared to lack the pace over 2m last time but stayed on strongly. At the prices I think he's worth an each way bet.

Witness 1pt Each Way 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Ladbrokes - Lost

That's all for today.

The Jumps Punter

Summary

Couldn't have asked for a better start to the New Year with Cold March winning at Musselburgh. He raced prominent throughout and it looked at one point like he might be swallowed up by the strong travelling Upsilon Bleu but he showed a good attitude and battled on well. The blinkers appearing to do a good job. Given the way Upsilon Bleu travelled throughout the race, he looks a horse worth following he is currently handicapped to win and a drop back to 2m would see him in with a strong chance.
Witness lacked fluency at his fences and this was a poor show from him he never got near the leaders due to his poor jumping to even see if the step up in trip would have been in his favour.

Total number of horse racing tips: 20

Total Points Profit : 5.05

Total Profit £10 per point : £50.50

Total profit to £50 per point : £252.50

Return on investment : 12.62%


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