How to Make Wise Football Bets
How to pick your bets wisely
You’ve educated yourself when it comes to dreaded and confusing betting terminology and you now understand a much wider range of markets. There’s always more to learn, but you’re ready to approach online football betting from a completely different angle. Well, almost.
It’s one thing to understand football betting. Just like the game of football, we all understand it, but it takes hard work and dedication to be good at it. And of course some talent. In our course, that talent is having an eye for a decent bet.
You’re far from alone when it comes to picking your bets as there is an endless well of information on the internet - and that includes football betting statistics - and it’s all up to you to interpret that in a way that works for you. That’s not always an easy task, so here are some beginner’s tips and list of useful resources.
Don’t ever bet blind.
This means actually do your research. Some of the most common blind bets are born out of team reputation, backing your own club, following a friend’s (possibly under researched) advice and being led astray by odds on prices.
Few things matter as much as form. If we want to go in-depth, there are unlimited variations. What use are they if first and foremost you can’t identify a team that are at least putting a few results together? Form is there to be changed, but no one is going to be happy about betting on the team that have lost five in a row without scoring a goal.
More specific than recent form, take a look at home teams have done at home and away from home. This is especially important in South America or somewhere like MLS. You won’t find many team that do better away than they do at home, so it’s important to keep that in mind. Regardless of that home/away forms, bookmakers tend to price up the bigger clubs or form sides as you’d expect. Don’t be afraid to go against that.
Instinct can both harm and help your betting. Don’t be one of those that scrolls through a list of games and just ‘has a feeling’ about everything. Equally, you might research something that is leading you down one path, or follow a Tipster that is sold one one outcome, but your gut knows better. Sometimes it pays to trust your gut instinct if it’s a strong one. This could mean avoiding betting or even a change of heart. Trust yourself, basically.
Pick Your Leagues.
Always stick to what you know. OK, that team in Bolivia might be on a fantastic run and at a price that doesn’t make sure; but that price may be there for a good reason and it’s one you don’t know. Even things such as travel, altitude and history matters, so don’t get pulled in by leagues you don’t know. If you know the Premier League inside out, bet on the Premier League. Simple.
You can research in a prepared manner or in a not prepared manner. The earlier you can get your head around the upcoming fixtures in the week the better. If you can make time on a Monday/Tuesday to start turning your attentions to the weekend, that’s good. I guarantee you’ll look at things differently each day and find different angles. You may even go back and forth between two sides in a game throughout the week but giving yourself lots of time to think things over makes it more likely that you get it right in the end.
Travel, rivalry, altitude, surroundings, revenge, niggling little individual rivalries and storylines. All things that can have an impact on a game. And whether you think so or not, every team in the world has a bogey side. There’s no science to it, it’s just a case of it happens. A team picked up a couple of results somewhere once and for whatever reason, it’s in the head of the fans, the players. It just lingers on a matchday. Leave no stone unturned.
The bigger picture.
Bayern Munich are going to win at home against Cologne, right? Sure. Why not. Even the odds of 1.50 say so. But stop to consider Cologne are not only a bogey team for Bayern, but the fact that Bayern played three days ago in the Cup and have a more important Champions League tie coming up four days after that. They’re going to win the league anyway, so don’t fall into the trap of betting on something that’s been priced on this game alone. Bookmakers want that. Contrary to what you may believe, they would probably purposely fail to factor that in. Smart people may go against Munich, but you can bet your life more people will bet blindly on Bayern in accumulators and they’ll take advantage.
Don’t fall for the bookmakers odds.
Odds are nothing more than a number thought up by a group of people who use statistics. We are also a group of people who use statistics, and it’s possible to beat the odds. Despite the factored in ‘juice’. A lot of people, especially beginners, do what feels comfortable. And that can be following the bookmakers lead by betting on odds between 1.50 to 1.90. As soon as you get to 2.00 and above, we’re talking about things that are not ‘odds on’ and that can scare people. It shouldn’t. We’ve already highlighted in another article that the absolutely only profitable angle for match betting in the Premier League so far this season has been backing the underdog outright, who has won 34 times at average odds above 4.00!
There are lots of sites out there you can use to gather your basic fixture and form information, such as BBC Sport, Sky Sports and Soccerway. They may be two or most convenient, but there are loads. Soccerway will also allow you to analyse the basic form and home/away form of a side. You can use something as simple as a league table to your advantage when betting.
If you want to delve deeper, looking at things such as statistical data, historical and situational things, and even get as detailed as looking at individual player impacts and ratings and how an absentee may or may not affect the game, then sites such as WhoScored, StatBunker and Football Data are all sites you should bookmark.
Odds Comparison sites
Let’s not forget that once you have picked your bets, you’ll want to get the best odds. One of the leading and easiest to use comparison sites is Oddschecker. Some others include bestbetting and odds monkey.
Odds comparison websites allow for several important factors when finding odds for your bets. Firstly, you can compare odds and find the best. It may be that one bookmaker only values a side at 1.75, but it’s not rare that another bookmaker may go as high as 1.85 because they see things differently.
Whilst this is only £1 from a £10 bet, it’s very possible for someone betting to increase their yearly profit but as much as 5%, 10% and maybe even 15% by going through settling for any old odds to using the best odds out there thanks to a comparison website.
Secondly, it could save hours of manual labour. If you do like to get the best odds but you don’t use a comparison sites then it can take a very long time to collect odds for just one bet. And guess what? They may have changed already. Comparison websites offer extremely up to date odds.
Finally, it also allows you to track odds movement. Now this isn’t something that should put you off of your bet or make you follow a dropping market entirely, but seeing which way the money is going is useful. If you’re betting on a market such as match result, total goals, etc. then you can be sure that a big change in odds is down to big money bets. Big money bets usually come from smart people. This is useful to know.
It’s a little easier to do with American Sports, but one betting method is to actually gage the percentage of the betting public backing a market and compare the odds movement. You can apply it to football if you can find the right stats. If you see 60% of teams betting on one side but the odds quickly drifting the other way, then you can bet your life it’s because big bettors, wise guys and betting syndicates are moving them. There’s always the method of ‘fading the public’, because we assume the betting public lose more than they win.
If there’s one thing the football betting world has unlimited amounts of, it’s Tipsters. It’s gone from a market where only the best ply this trade through platforms such as TVs and Newspaper, to a highly competitive market where any fool can pick up his phone, download Twitter and suddenly become a self-proclaimed master.
Well, you have to pick your Tipster wisely if you are going to use one. That’s where we here at Tipster’s Review come in again, offering you those impartial reviews and even allowing our followers to post their own comments on any Tipster that is reviewed.
If you’re new to this and looking to find a trustworthy Tipster, here are some helpful tips.
1. Find a Tipster with records: If they’re verified by the likes of Tipstrr, SBC, ourselves and the various other trustworthy methods, fantastic. The leg work has been done for you. Just select one who works in a way that fits you.
2. Performance: Come across a Tipster who boosts a rather impressive win rate of 60% over the long term, or ROI’s nearing 20% over the past few years? Walk away. I refuse to believe it. If they’re genuine, it’s a rare case and they wouldn’t waste their time on Twitter. HOWEVER, Twitter and Facebook can still be a very big platform used by some reputable Tipsters/Betting Advisors.
3. Is their advice achievable? By this I mean it’s no use following someone who posts a bet to thousands of people on a crumby market like corners and cards, and then the odds are smashed to bits by the first 50 people to get there. You want a Tipster who finds up to date, best odds and likes to bet on big markets, using things like match results, goals, both teams to score and asian handicap. You aso want someone who advises you in good time.
4. Honestly. What’s a good record for a Tipster? Over a period of years and years, a win percentage as low as 53% can be extremely possible. An ROI of 5-8% over years and years again doesn’t sound a lot, but you’d be surprised how much that’d make you. Don’t pick someone who screams about 60% winnings and big odds. Pick someone who has plodded along for years, shares their losses as well as winners, and boasts a win percentage around 53 to 57%. They’re more likely to be a trustworthy, honest guy. Providing you can verify their claims.
5. Listen to social media: Honestly, it takes nothing for a group of people on a social media platform to drag someone's name through the dirt. If a Tipster that in the public eye is dishonest or performs badly far too often, people will let you know about it. Check their posts out and see what sort of stuff people are commenting. It’s good to know.
If you follow those simple tips and find yourself still searching for answers, don’t fear: just check out all of our useful pages, tips and guides here at Tipsters Review!