JPW Racing Tipster 7 day live trial : Horse Racing Tipster
On live trial this week : JPW Racing Tipster
Service type: Horse Racing Tipster
Trial type - 7 day live trial
Week Starting - 09/01/2016
Cost : £30 P/M
Service Offers : Various
Trial Info : 7 days of free horse racing tips from JPW Racing tipster who's selections will go out each evening before the days racing around 8pm. All of the racing tips from JPW Racing Tipster will also come with a full write up explaining the reasoning behind the selection and will also have there own advised stake.
Monday - Day 1
Hammersly Lake is the respected favourite but at 5/4 is a little skinny for a horse who has only got his head in front once in his last 17 starts. At the prices MA DU FOU is the stand out bet especially getting 6lbs from the favourite.
He has run twice over fences finishing 3rd both times but it is worth pointing out that on both occasions trainer Warren Greatrex's horses were running badly. His horses are running fairly well now and I think the horse will improve now the yard are back in better form. MA DU FOU was a decent hurdler last season winning 3 times on the bounce. He even beat Agrapart by 6 lengths who actually went on to win the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle last February and also won the Grade 1 Relkeel Hurdle last weekend at Cheltenham.
MA DU FOU also beat another decent horse in North Hill Harvey who won the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. It shows that on his day MA DU FOU is a horse to be reckoned with. Davy Russell rides the horse for the first time and he is a jockey I have a lot of time for. MA DU FOU also has headgear on for the first time which should help him concentrate that bit better. WIN.
MA DU FOU 4/1 with Ladbrokes and Bet 365 - 1 POINT WIN - Lost
JPW Racing Tipster
Tuesday - Day 2
We tipped up CASSE TETE on the 4th January but the meeting was called off. He is back at the same course in virtually the same line up and I still think he has a huge chance.
I am happy to side with Gary Moore new french recruit CASSE TETE who I think will have the class to win this race. He is only a 5 year old but shaped really well on his first start over fences in France back in October. He looks sure to improve and with CASSE TETE being the youngest in the field you would expect him to have the most improvement to come out of the field. It looks a very shrewd recruit for Gary Moore as the chase he won in France was a decent race. CASSE TETE is also very well bred being by Poliglote who's horses have a fine record in the UK. To name a few horses by Poliglote such as Don Poli, Politologue, Top Notch who have all done very well over fences bodes well for the horse. The 11/4 on offer could look big come the finish tomorrow.
CASSE TETE 11/4 with most firms - 1 POINT WIN - Lost
JPW Racing Tipster
Wednesday - Day 3
I respect the favourite Calett Mad but I think that horse needs a softer surface to be seen at his best. The good ground will play into the favour of QUALANDO who trainer Paul Nicholls has always said he needs. This is his 3rd start over fences and on his previous 2 starts I thought he jumped very well. Both races were against some decent horses and he did not disgrace himself. This is the easiest task he has had over fences and although he has top weight to carry the key to this horse will be the good ground. You are talking about a very good horse given the right conditions. He is a former Cheltenham Festival after winning the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle in 2015. WIN.
QUALANDO 3/1 with Ladbrokes - 1 POINT WIN - Lost
ZAMDY MAN gets 6lb off the favourite Gino Trail and I think this will be difference between the pair. Even off level weights if the prices were still the same I would be in the ZAMDY MAN camp, so with the weight advantage, I believe he will take some beating. He finished 2nd on his last start at Ludlow to Kilcrea Vale but that was his first start of the season. ZAMDY MAN will come on alot for the run and at 9/4 looks a solid bet as I make him 7/4 in my tissue. This is a horse once rated 156 over hurdles and although this race is over fences it shows he has that touch of class. WIN.
ZAMDY MAN 9/4 with William Hill and Bet 365 - 1 POINT WIN - Won +2.25
GRANDIOSO is simply overpriced at a huge 14/1 as I make him a 15/2 chance. He has plenty of experience Hunter Chasing and rarely runs a bad race. He used to be trained by Paul Nicholls and at his best was rated a 147 horse over fences. That was 3 years ago and we know his best days are behind but it does show he is a fair horse capable of getting involved here. GRANDIOSO was a winner on his last 2 starts last season and is actually 3 wins from his last 4 starts. I am confident he will run a big race and happy with the price available. E/W.
GRANDIOSO 14/1 with William Hill and Bet 365 - 0.5 POINTS E/W - Placed +3 (BOG)
JPW Racing Tipster
It is rare that you will see me get involved in Class 5 race as I normally stick to Class 1 - 3 races. On this occasion though LORD LANDEN is a stand out bet for me. I watched his last race at Warwick a month ago, live from the JPW Racing Tipster Ltd Head Quarters, and after the race put LORD LANDEN in my notebook with a question mark next to his name - Class 4 race with better jockey, will win next time.
I thought he ran a terrific race last time out and take nothing away from the jockey Miss A Stirling who did well but she was always going to find it hard against the likes of James Banks, Noel Fehily and Aidan Coleman. He came home 3rd that day only beaten by 2 lengths and the jockey even lost an iron on the run in,so it was a decent effort which left me thinking, had a more experienced jockey been on board LORD LANDEN would have won.
It was also a Class 4 race that day so is down in Class to a Class 5 today. This is actually the easiest race he has contested in a few years. He has to overcome top weight but we have Conor Shoemark back on board today and he gets on very well with the horse having won 3 times on him from 12 rides. A 25% strike rate on the horse.
Trainer Fergal O'Brien could've easily put a claimer on board but the fact he is not using one and is instead putting a jockey on who gets on very well with the horse tells me LORD LANDEN is ready to win. WIN.
LORD LANDEN 7/2 with Bet 365 and Paddy Power - 1 POINT WIN - Lost
JPW Racing Tipster
Friday - Day 5
Not normally my kind of bet but O O SEVEN should be 4/7 here so I am happy to take the 5/4. As we always say value doesn't just mean picking a 20/1 shot. It means being ahead of the traders and I have no doubt we are ahead of them here.
This is a poor field and O O SEVEN should win in a canter against this lot. He has to carry top weight but that shouldn't be a problem. He was an impressive winner on his debut over fences at Cheltenham in November and ran a sound enough race on his last start when 3rd to Present Man at Doncaster last month. O O SEVEN should get back to winning ways here. WIN.
O O SEVEN 6/5 with William Hill - 1.5 POINTS WIN - Won +1.8
JPW Racing Tipster
Saturday - Day 6
Tomorrow we have a busy day of tips from Warwick and Kempton.
Wow CHAMPERS ON ICE available at 11/4. Happy Days. This horse was by far the best over hurdles and although this is over fences he has loads of scope to be better over the bigger obstacles. I have a lot of time for this horse who is a proper stayer. The more of a test the better for the horse. He finished 3rd in last years Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle only beaten by 3 lengths to UnowhatImeanharry. He has had one start over fences with an easy win at Uttoxeter and although his jumps were a bit novicey he is entitled to improve further. He is a former point to point so has some experience over fences and I fully expect this horse to be in the winners enclosure. WIN.
CHAMPERS ON ICE 11/4 with William Hill and Bet 365 - 1 POINT WIN -Lost
The favourite here is Vaniteux who on his day is a very good horse but it was only on New Years Day that the horse was withdrawn from a race at Cheltenham because the ground was too soft and it is not exactly going to be better ground here with the rain/snow we had yesterday. The one horse who is going to enjoy the ground is the Paul Nicholls trained VIBRATO VALTAT. His form on a softer surface is excellent and I think the favourite Vaniteux has a big battle on his hand. Another thing which swings it towards VIBRATO VALTAT is his price. He is available at 5/2 which is big as I make him a 6/4 chance. You are talking about a horse who has been good enough to win one grade 1 and three grade 2 races over fences where the favourite has not hit any of those heights. It will be a great race but value wise I am happy to be in the VIBRATO VALTAT camp. WIN.
VIBRATO VALTAT 5/2 with Bet 365 and Coral - 1 POINT WIN - Lost
LORD OF THE ISLAND would not normally be your typical Lanzarote Hurdle winner as he only made his debut under rules as an 8 year old but within a year he has gone from strength to strength particularly since he joined Fergal O'Brien over the summer. He was an easy winner on his first start for trainer Fergal O'Brien at Towcester in November and then run a very good race to finish 3rd to Trans Express at Exeter last month. The form of that race has worked out well with Rocklander who finished 2nd going on to finish 2nd at Cheltenham on New Years Day and the 4th Space Oddity has since won twice, both decent performances. LORD OF THE ISLAND actually fell on his last start in a race which was won by Space Oddity but was going every bit as good as the winner before coming down 2 hurdles out. He remains on the same handicap mark of 129 which had he won that race I am sure we would be talking about a 134 horse. Conor Shoemark is on board and rides off a tiny weight of 10st 2lb. LORD OF THE ISLAND is now stepped up in trip and this should bring out further improvement. E/W.
LORD OF THE ISLAND 10/1 with most firms - 0.5 POINTS E/W - Placed +1
Really surprised to see VOLNAY DE THAIX as big as 13/2 here. I make him a 4/1 chance and although he has top weight to carry he is head and shoulders above any of these and who is to say the rest are handicapped well. To me he has always looked a horse who prefers to go right handed and in one visit to Kempton he has one win to his name with an impressive win over hurdles early in his career. On his day this horse is very talented. He is a big horse so should have no problem carrying the weight as he showed at Sandown on his penultimate start. He finished 2nd to Junction Fourteen that day but had some good horses like Antony, Thomas Crapper, As De Mee and Some Buckle all in behind. It was a much better race than todays so if he can run like that in better company, while carrying top weight, I am sure he will be able to in this race. He has only had one run this season in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon which is a Grade 2 and he is sure to improve for that run.
VOLNAY DE THAIX 13/2 with Coral - 0.5 POINTS E/W - Lost
SHOTGUN PADDY won this race back in 2014 off a handicap mark of 144 carrying 11st 7lb and then returned in 2015 to finish 3rd off a handicap of 147 carrying top weight of 11st 12lb. He missed the race last year because he went for the Welsh National in which he finished 3rd. It does show that around this time of year he seem to run his best races and this year he lines up on a handicap mark of 139 carrying just 10st 13lb. He is not getting any younger but the return to proper Soft Ground will only help as this horse is a real mudlark and he stays all day long. His last start was at Cheltenham in November where he finished a respectable 7th of 17. I thought it was a decent run considering he nearly fell with a loose horse cutting him up mid race. I expect Emma Lavelle has purposely trained the horse for this race for over 2 months now and I think a big run is on the cards. E/W.
SHOTGUN PADDY 10/1 with Bet 365 - 0.75 POINTS E/W - Placed +1.12
JPW Racing Tipster
Sunday - Day 8
I really like the look of BALTIMORE ROCK here. You don't often see Neil Mulholland take a horse to Ireland so that is interesting in itself. BALTIMORE ROCK is a very good horse on his day and is a former winner of the Imperial Cup at Sandown over hurdles. He is a very smooth travelling horse who was mixing it with likes of Douvan last season. He had his first start of the season at Ludlow just before Christmas and I believe he would've won that race had he not been badly hampered 2 fences from home. He was carrying top weight and was still firmly on the bridle and moving with real menace. The leader fell right in front of him and it was race over. He went into his last race rated a 144 and had he won the race I am sure he would've gone up the handicap 1 or 2lb but as it happens through no fault of his own, the handicapper has dropped him 2lb. Noel Fehily is over to ride the horse and it is his only ride of the day. I am sure he won't want a wasted journey. E/W.
BALTIMORE ROCK 15/2 with Paddy Power and Bet 365 - 0.75 POINTS E/W
JPW Racing Tipster
Total number of horse racing tips: 13
Total Points Profit : 1.17
Total Profit £10 per point : £10.17
Total profit to £50 per point : £58.50
Return on investment : 8.07%