Melbourne Cup 2016 Free Horse Racing Tips, Betting preview & odds

Gary Priestley - 31-Oct-2016





Melbourne Cup 2016 Free Betting Tips, Race Preview & Odds


4.00 Flemington Park : Skybet paying 6 places: Betfred/Coral paying 5 places


1. BIG ORANGE : 10/1 General
5th last year as a 60-1 chance having won the same 2 races he's won this year on his way here. He'll be fresher this year having missed the York race but was relatively unfancied last year and does have to carry 4lb more this time around. The positive is he has a much better draw in barrier 7 as oppose to 23 last year, but 10-1 value I'm not so sure.


2. OUR IVANHOE : 50-1 in places but 40-1 6 places skybet
10th last year as a 20-1 shot with 3lb more to carry this time around. watching a replay of the race from last year he was travelling very well at the 3 pole with nowhere to go. Once he found some room he was unable to quicken this year he has barrier 6 instead of 22 so might just get himself a better position to strike at the 2 pole, I think 50/40-1 looks like ew value.


3. CURREN MIROTIC : 40-1 in places
As an 8yo I believe he's too old and the winner of only 1 race doesn't bode too well but on his only 2 runs at 16F he's finished a very close 3rd & 2nd the latter at 100-1 beaten only a nose.


4. BONDI BEACH : 7/1 general
16th last year beaten 6L I see no reason why he should win this time around 7-1 looks very poor, the obvious plus is he's A.O'Briens only runner and Ryan Moore rides and he does have a significantly better draw this time.


5. EXOSPHERIC : 20-1 general
Very disappointing fav at Royal Ascot plus didn't run well on his last run back in England but did fair much better when a staying on 3rd in the Caulfield Cup on his first run for his new trainer just 17 days ago showing no signs of the effects of the change of scenary. Not sure he's good enough though.


6. HARTNELL : 5-1fav general
Wow really 5-1 he was a well beaten 15th at 30-1 last year and was rated only 110 back in England, yes he's been over in Australia permanently now so no long haul over and has won 3 of his last 4 runs but was demolished by 8L by Winx last time and barrier 12 not the greatest draw.


7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN : 40-1 general
Too old at 8 ran well when 3rd 2 years ago but was 11th last year no much to recommend him on this years runnings so easily passed over.


8. WICKLOW BRAVE : 16-1 general
Will always remember him for being a winning nap at Cheltenham festival when he won the County hurdle at 33-1, now concentrating on being a flat horse he's taken well to it with a good win over Order Of St George last time but that was only a 4 runner race he'll run well but win I'm not so sure.


9. ALMONNQITH : 20-1 general
18th last year and not been running well this year though his 4th in the Caulfield Cup last time was a little better than he had been doing but still a massive ask to win this. Had barrier 10 last year has 19 this time around no reason why should do any better.


10. GALLANTE : 66-1 general
All 4 career wins have been on soft or very soft ground so these conditions won't suit at all. All runs on good or better ground been well beaten.


11. GRAND MARSHAL : 40-1 general
Only managed 21st last year wins come on soft ground and when last raced over here was rated just 75 would need a massive improvement to figure.


12. JAMEKA : 7-1 general
Easy winner of the Caulfield Cup last time out and previous to that was a good 2nd to Hartnell so has obvious claims and deserves to be a leading contender, has a great draw in barrier 3 but is going 1/2mile further than she's ever run before.


13. HEARTBREAK CITY : 14-1 general
A good winner of the Betfred/Tote Ebor at York last time but that was off a mark of 103 he needs to fins at least 10lb improvement on that run to figure here, not out of the question but barrier 23 is certainly a tough draw.


14. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD : 66-1 general 100-1 4places Ladbrokes
A winner of a grade 1 only 2 races ago but was disappointing in the Caulfield Cup last time, has been consistant in Grade 2 & 3 races throughout 2016 and was rated 110 when last seen over here and wins on all ground so there are worse 100-1 shots running than this one, though barrier 14 not great.


15. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE : 100-1 B365 only 3 places 66-1 6 places skybet
Was an excellent 7th last year not beaten very far and did lead the field into the final furlong only losing the lead 150yds out. Had barrier 24 last year not faired much better this year with 21 but could run well at very rewarding odds a definite ew shout for me.


16. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE : 80-1 in places 50-1 general
Rated 112 here in England but well beaten behind Minding and Journey on last 2 runs and only had last run here 39days ago so not much time to acclimatize.


17. ALMANDIN : 12-1 general
Short but sweet very surprised if good enough for this based on the 8 races he's had so far easily passed over, barrier 17 not great 12-1 does look short!!


18. ASSIGN : 100-1 general
Only rated 95 when last seen running in Ireland would be a major shock if anywhere near good enough to win this prize.


19. GREY LION : 33-1 general
Another that looks out of his depth here on only attempt beyond 12F was last of 8 beaten 8L and not won a race in listed or better company.


20. OCEANOGRAPHER : 8-1 general
Run style would certainly have you worried here as he does like to come from a long way back, with 24 runners that could be tough to do, he has barrier 11 so might have to race closer to the pace than usual with that in mind 8-1 does look short.though did win well only 3 days ago so you know he's in good heart.


21. SECRET NUMBER : 25-1 general
Of the Godolphin contingent this looks to be the best chance of them winning for me.Lightly raced though main worry would be that all 3 turf wins have been on soft ground.


22. PENTATHLON : 100-1 general
Absolutely no chance move on!!


23. QEWY : 20-1 general
Another that is a high class hurdler but I'm not sure he's up to winning at this level on the flat, he won last time out which shows his well being but don't think thats good enough here.


24. ROSE OF VIRGINIA : 200-1 general
Hopefully the owners will have a good day out as thats the best they can hope for here!!



Conclusion and prediction:


I'm a little surprised to see Hartnell so short and of the main players in the market I would suggest Jameka will do best but for my punting point of view I'm going with 2 longer shots with OUR IVANHOE who is 50-1 3 places but I prefer 40-1 6 places with Skybet & EXCESS KNOWLEDGE 100-1 3places Bet365 or as I prefer 80-1 5 places with Coral. I would also suggest maybe a small saver on SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD at 100-1 4 places with Ladbrokes.

Melbourne cup 2016 horse racing tips


1pt ew OUR IVANHOE 40-1 skybet 6 places

1pt ew EXCESS KNOWLEDGE 80-1 coral 5 places

Good Luck
Gary (4pts invested)

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