The Snout 7 day live trial : Horse Racing Tipster 29/02/2016
On Live trial this week : The Snout
Service type: Horse Racing Tipster
Trial type - 7 day live trial
Cost : £26 p/m
Service Offers : First month Half Price
Trial Info : Horse Racing Tipster "The Snout" sends his tips out between 6.30 and 8pm each evening before the days horse racing. Each tip will come advised with its own staking plan and will consist of win and each way single bets. The Snout is a Tipster service out of the Tipsters Empire betting platform.
Monday 29th February
3.25 Wolverhampton - SANDY COVE - Lost
I quite like SANDY COVE a here. He was of interest last time when coming back from a break but with that run under his belt he should strip much fitter and the fact connections get him out again quickly is a good sign. He travelled well for a long way last time out and looked the winner when going upsides but just didn't have the fitness to get home. He has a very good record over 1m4f on the all weather which reads 1124162 and he is only 2lb higher than his last win. He has the added bonus of Luke Morris' services tomorrow as well.
1pt win 5-1 Bet365.
4.00 Wolverhampton - BRAVO ZOLO - Won + 3 points
This step up in trip is just what BRAVO ZOLO needs. He came from a long way off the pace last time out to challenge our winner Lunar Deity and he was always staying on but just couldn't reach the leader and was beaten a length. There was significant marker support for him that day and with a better gallop and an additional couple of furlongs he has to go close. Jeremy Noseda has a 29% strike rate at the track.
1pt win 3-1 William Hill.
Tuesday 1st March
Another profitable day as we had a 3-1 winner in BRAVO ZOLO. He went off at 7/4 so although the price seems skinny I was confident on him doing the business and we got some decent value. Sandy Cove ran a bit flat which was disappointing. We have 3 selections tomorrow to begin the month. It's going to be a big one with Cheltenham round the corner!
3.30 Catterick - THE WEXFORDIAN - Lost
I cannot believe for a second that this horse will go off at this price. Firstly the yard have won this race twice in recent years, and Martin Keighley has a strike rate of 25% at Catterick and 33% strike rate in chases at Catterick. The horse himself has shown clear potential on the racecourse, with solid bumper form and appeared in two high class novice chases that were won by Champagne West and Saphir Du Rheu. He didn't get involved in those races but for connections to be putting him there shows that he must be fairly well thought of. Ignore his last run, he didn't get involved from the off and was rightly pulled up but he has been given a nice break since then and with the best jockey in the field on board I give him a good chance.
1pt win 7-1 Bet365.
3.40 Lingfield - LEONARD THOMAS - Lost
Longer term members will know that I place fairly big emphasis on C&D form and I am certain that LEONARD THOMAS is much better than what his penultimate start showed over C&D. He travelled into the race so well at the back of the field and you could almost see George Downing panic heading into the straight as the leaders began to get away. He powered through a few horses including undergoing a brief barging match with another horse to fly home but couldn't get to the leaders. Those included Trending (since won off a higher mark), Runaiocht (since finished just behind Biff Johnson who won again today) and Apache Glory (has since won). That form has clearly been franked and the step up to 1m4f didn't quite work out for LEONARD THOMAS but back to this trip off just 62 with George Downing taking 3lb off, he must have a better chance than his odds suggest. With 8 runners I will opt for a min each way bet.
0.5pt EW 11-1 Paddy Power, 3 places paid at 1/5 odds.
4.40 Lingfield - ASK THE GURU - Lost
There is no doubting that this horse seems to be back in form after a few lesser efforts in December/January, as after just over a month off he ran just 2L behind the highly progressive Miracle Garden before running on nicely over C&D behind Secret Asset. Watching that race back a few times he looks to be going the best when turning in having travelled nicely into the race but just seemed to lack the edge to get home in the lat 100 yards as Secret Asset came from the outside to swoop home. I think the drop in class to a Class 6 tomorrow should really help his chances and he is drawn well with the best recent form on paper. I like his chances and there is no reason why he won't be going off closer to 5/2.
1pt win 4-1 Betfair.
Wednesday 2nd March
Kempton 8.15 - DESERT STRIKE - Lost
This is a huge price on the veteran DESERT STRIKE here. He always is worth attention when he drops into a 0-75 as his record is outstanding in them with a 22% strike rate when in this grade of race, with form in Class 5 handicaps since the March 2014 reading 1421131412. He also has the added bonus of tomorrow being the only recognised front runner in the field, and if he gets an easy lead in this type of race he is very hard to peg back. Last time in a 0-75 Class 5 he ran brilliantly over C&D to just be squeezed out in the dying strides and lost by a head, off the same mark as he is today, but he was heavily contested for the lead and therefore should find tomorrowmuch easier. The Big Lad is certainly a promising type but from a tough draw and no real experience the price of 11/8 is incredibly skinny. DESERT STRIKE will run his race as per and has a huge chance if he can get to the lead without exerting himself from stall 9.
1pt ew 16-1 Betfair Sportsbook. 3 places paid at 1/4 odds.
3.35 Meydan - PURE DIAMOND - Won +7 points
I urge you to watch back PURE DIAMOND's last race in which he was beaten by Comicas (3/4L). He really struggled for room coming into the straight and Freddie Tylicki got him into all sorts of issues but once he switched him and got him outside he absolutely flew home and must have made up about 15 lengths within a furlong and a half. I don't read into sectionals much but that must have been frighteningly fast. He re opposes here on similar terms and I just think if Harry Bentley can give him a bit of a calmer ride than Tylicki did he has a huge chance.
1pt win 7-1 SkyBet.
5.20 Meydan - MASTERMIND - Lost
Some interesting form lines here associated with our Meydan winner last week Fils Agnes but I think MASTERMIND, who finished 3rd in that race, is a better bet at a slightly bigger price. I'm not convinced MASTERMIND wanted to lead that day but with not much early pace he had to make the running which played into Fils Agnes hands. He likes to be up with the pace which he can do from stall 11 but this is a horse that has never finished out of the first three and has been very close in Group company previously. He is the choice of Paul Hanagan and should be there at the business end of the race. It is also interesting to note that he was subject of a late gamble that day when finishing 3rd.
1pt win 7-1 Betfair Sportsbook.
6.30 Meydan - DORMELLO - Won + 8.75
I think DORMELLO is a really interesting runner here and 14-1 is a huge price. He was tried over 1m4f in January in a top handicap when he really struggled for room at a key stage, before bursting through and not having enough time to get to the leaders. He was then dropped in trip to 1m1f and I was very nearly tempted by him that day but he ended finishing 2nd to the current favourite here Musaddas. He travelled really nicely that day but may have found the trip on the quick side so the step up here looks spot on. He beat Sanshaawes a year ago so clearly has the class to go well.
0.5pt EW 14-1 Ladbrokes. 4 places paid at 1/4 odds.
Friday 4th March
A very pleasing day at Meydan today as firstly PURE DIAMOND (7/1 into 7/2) showed the same turn of foot she showed in her last run but with a much more measured ride from Harry Bentley. Mastermind was disappointing to put it bluntly and he never really got into the race from the wide draw. American Hope was one we backed last time out so to see him win was a bit frustrating but that happens. DORMELLO (14/1 into 12/1) then won under a very good ride from Chris Hayes to give us a really nice profitable day. I believe that is 40 points profit in the past 10 days which is great to see and I am really happy to be delivering good news to members!
Hopefully we can continue this form into tomorrow. We just have the 1 selection as a couple I had my eye on have opened up much shorter than expected.
3.40 Lingfield - LEXINGTON TIMES - Lost
LEXINGTON TIMES is a really interesting runner tomorrow at Lingfield and the price is massively underestimating him. What drew me to him was that last year he won over C&D in a Listed race beating Angelic Lord by a neck which is very good form as that horse is now rated 108. That race came off a break of the best part of 5 months and tomorrowhe appears after a very similar break, so it may be that he runs best fresh and it is the best time to catch him. I am convinced 7f is his trip and he does act well at Lingfield, with form reading 1320. Last time out (the blip in his form book) wasn't a great run but it was a very competitive handicap and looking back at the race he was caught wide for the majority of it and was not ideally placed. I am sure with a better ride and with his aforementioned positives he has a definite chance at a massive price. Richard Hannon's stable is working at a 22% strike rate for 2016.
0.5pt ew 20-1 Boylesports, 16-1 SkyBet, Betfair, Betway.
Saturday 5th March
2.15 Newbury - SAME DIFFERENCE - Lost
I am convinced SAME DIFFERENCE is a very well handicapped animal. He landed a big gamble for me personally at the Cheltenham festival when winning the Kim Muir off a mark of 137 and today he runs off 130 so on that evidence alone he is capable of winning. I really do think that he needs decent ground and his reappearance and stable debut for Warren Greatrex was on horrible ground where the trainer admitted that he wouldn't like it, and he ran him on it just to give him a racecourse run. That was his first start in a year and a half and he should strip much fitter tomorrow in a race that really should suit. He has decent course form when finishing just 3L off Unioniste earlier on his career. He also finished midfield in the Henessey Gold Cup earlier on his career and Warren should have him in top shape for this race tomorrow.
0.5pt ew 8-1 Generally.
2.30 Lingfield - LACAN - Lost
LACAN looks to be overpriced here. He is an all weather winner off 91 and 93, and coming here off 90 he definitely can be in the shake up. Those two wins on the all weather were over Big Baz and God Willing in very competitive heats that look much hotter than this race here. Ralph Beckett's stable have started the year well with a few winners going in and Graham Gibbons has a 27% strike rate when riding for him. He makes his stable debut for Ralph Beckett and off a good mark I think he can make a winning start. It looks a great each way bet to be on.
0.5pt ew 11-1 Boylesports, 10-1 William Hill. 3 places paid at 1/5 odds.
2.55 Meydan - WATERSHED - Lost
I am wanting to take the market principles on here and this looks to be a great price on WATERSHED. I tend to stick to the turf at Meydan rather than the dirt but watching WATERSHED fly home over an inadequate trip last time out certainly caught my eye, and the extra two furlongs in the step up to 1m4f should really suit him tomorrow. If you watch the replay from last time out he stayed on so well and with another 100 yards he more than likely would have been in front. He should also strip much fitter for that outing and if looking on ratings alone you wouldn't give him much chance but the step up in trip will bring the best out of him and I certainly think Keen Ice's rating is hugely over estimating ability when you consider he has only won once. I think this is a great bet to be on.
1pt win 7-1 Paddy Power.
3.40 Lingfield - DUNGANNON - Lost
I can't get away from DUNGANNON here. We were on him when he won well at Southwell but to completely honest I'm not sure the track really suits him, and we should see more from him at Lingfield. He won a Class 2 handicap from Boom The Groom in 2014 off a mark of 102 and to put that into context he comes here off a mark of 93. Based on that he is very well handicapped and bouncing back to any where near his best he has a good chance in a tough looking race. He has a 25% strike rate at 5f and Eddie Greatrex has a 43% strike rate at the track and 24% when riding for Andrew Balding. He is an extremely talented jockey. I have been waiting for Royal Birth to run on a straighter track but bookmakers are constantly putting him up at favourite and I cannot back him at the prices.
0.5pt ew 16-1 Bet365 Generally. 3 places paid at 1/5 odds.
Sunday 6th March
No free horse racing tips today
Total number of horse racing tips :14
Total Points Profit : + 8.75
Total Profit £10 per point : + £87.50
Total Profit £50 per point : £437.50
Return on investment : 63%
Summary: The final day of the trial did not go as well as we would of liked however this was still a impressive week with some great results. The Snout (horse racing tipster) gave us 3 winners over the week priced 14/1, 7/1 and 3/1 and was his conservative staking plan this was enough so secure a profit of 8.75 points.