The Strict Rule System 7 day live trial : Horse racing tipster
The Strict Rule System
Service type: Horse Racing Tipster
Trial type: 7 day live trial
Week Starting: 30th july
Cost: £37 P/M
Service Offers: £10 one month
We revert back to horse racing for this weeks live trial and it is "The Strict Rule System" who will be put to the test over the next 7 days. His horse racing tips will eb sent out and posted online around mid day of each days racing. His tips will consist of win and each way selections and will come with an adised stake from the tipster.
3.15 Newton Abbot - Clo Sacre 3/1 1 point win - Lost
Just the one tip from the day meetings today. This is a decent novice handicap chase and I think we might finally see some of the potential that Clo Sacre showed in point to points. While his hurdle form was not great, I would be prepared to dismiss it as he fell on hurdles debut. I think the fact that he was well beaten on his next two starts was more a case of him being schooled around for a restoration of confidence. It is now interesting that the Nicholls team want to send him chasing now, as I do think chasing was always going to be where he excelled. So many runners from this yard show major improvement on their hurdles form when sent over the larger obstacles and I am hoping that this is the case today. He is a strong qualifier for the system. I had also been tempted to put up Prussian Eagle today who I put up when he won last time out. I left him today as I was concerned with the trip as there is not a great deal of stamina in the pedigree. If this had been run over two miles again he would have been a strong system qualifer. I think if he stays he will win again today, but that is a big "IF".
The racing looks really tough today and there is only the one system qualifier.
While A Boy Named Suzi has not won since 2014, there was a great deal to like about his run over course and distance last time out. If the race had ended after jumping the third last he would have won but it was not a case of him stopping either and he just got out battled. He galloped all the way to the line and was still only beaten a little under two lengths in to fourth in the end. While he would not a super strong system qualifier mainly because he has not won in a while,a repeat of his run here last time out should be enough to see him hit the frame.
In the 4:25 at Galway even though Clara Sorrento is top weight in this, it is a compressed handicap and we only have 11lbs covering the whole field. He also has Adam Short taking a valuable 7lbs off his back here so is close to running off of level weights with all of these. He is a horse who has close form lines with the 33/1 winner Pateen who I put up the other day as he also finished within a length of now 142 rated hurdler Run For Dave in a bumper. He also had to concede 10lbs to said rival that day too. On that evidence you would have to think a mark of 121 is still very lenient here. I can understand why they wanted to claim off him today too rather than use a more experienced jockey as without the claim a few more in this would look better treated. He is a strong system qualifier but this is a tough competitive race and you need lots of luck in running around here.
The Galway Plate is even more competitive and it looks a strong renewal this year with some classy individuals lining up. While Shaneshill,Balko Des Flos and A Toi Phil have some classy novice form and look the obvious candidates to win this and Sandymount Duke has sound claims too, it is hard enough to separate them so I tried to look for some each way value in this. The talking horse for this race for a while was Henry De Bromheads On Fiddlers Green who looks like he won't get a run, but I thought one of his other runners Deans Road also had really good claims. If you go back to a novice chase last summer in Killarney and he was only beaten a little under five lengths by Sandymount Duke at level weights over todays trip. He now meets that rival on 18lbs better terms today, yet he is twice the price of Sandymount Duke in this. He looks on a really good mark on that evidence and you would be hoping that he can at least hit the frame today, but he looks overpriced in this and would not be winning out of turn either. He is a relatively strong system qualifer but it is a tough competive race.
Thorpe was really impressive when winning over course and distance last time out and was value for a great deal more than the winning margin that day too, so a rise of just 6lbs here looks very lenient. There are a good few in the race who look well treated on old form but have not shown anything in a good long time. If he arrives here in the same mood he should be hard to beat as he still looks on a very lenient mark on old form. He is a fairly strong system qualifier.
This is a good beginners chase for this time of year and not too many can be ruled out with confidence. I do like the look of Oathkeeper who I think will make in to a decent chaser this season and very much depends on if conections leave the horse run on merit here or if they have handicaps in mind(you just never know with JP).. He did run a good race at the festival last year when only beaten a length by this years Albert Bartlett winner Penhill. That is by far the strongest piece of form in the race and a reproduction of a run to that sort of level on chase debut and he could be hard to beat. He is a strong enough system qualifer.
My second tip today comes in the Galway Hurdle and I have advised a smaller bet here as I think this is one of the most open Galway hurdles that I have seen in a while. UK challenger Shrewd has not been seen over hurdles in over a year but he is really well handicapped on one or two pieces of form. He has turned in to a really good handicapper on the flat and was a really good second in last years Ebor, so he has proved that he has no problem handling big field handicaps. The rain has also arrived in time for him and he should handle the underfoot conditions better than most in this. Admittingly he is not a strong system qualifier, but he should be capable of being involved with a clear passage.
5:10 Galway CEIDE FIELDS at 20/1(BET365) 0.3 points each way - Lost
As some of you may know I had initially fancied Ceide Fields in the race that Pateen won the other day, but he was only third reserve and never got a run. I do think the race the last day was easier than this race and that is the main reason I have advised a smaller bet here and also Ceide Fields is still a maiden after fourteen starts. Despite all that I do think he is a horse who massively underachieved for his previous handler and he has gone to a trainer who has improved a good few horses from other yards who were underachieving. His owner is local enough too and Mayo man Tom Doran would love to have a winner at this meeting. Ceide Fields overall record is patchy but two of his best runs have come at this track, with the run behind Pertemps final winner Presenting Percy catching the eye. Even allowing him being flattered by his proximity to that horse the JP runner in second that day would also suggest a mark of 103 to be extremely lenient. He does run from 2lbs out of the handicap here but Andrew King does alleviate that with his 3lbs claim. He is a strong enough system qualifer so I am hopeful of a big run.
3:05 Galway AUSSIE REIGNS @ 14/1 (BET365) 0.5 Points each way - Lost
Willie Mullins is five handed in this race and while jockey bookings would suggest The Crafty Butcher is his main hope in this, jockey bookings mean very little these days. Aussie Reigns was a Listed/Group 3 performer on the flat and I think there is plenty more to come from him this season over staying trips as he was a thorough stayer on the flat.Given his flat ability and his defeat of Montana Belle at Thurles, it would suggest there could be plenty of improvement to come on his current mark. There was a lot to like about the way he ran on his first try at this trip last time out, as a really bad mistake three out cost him any chance of victory. Saying that, even after that mistake he absolutely flew home when Ruby asked him for effort between the last two flights and I do think he could have finished much closer that day if he was fully ridden out. There is a chance that connections have other races in mind for him but the pot is big here and there is also a chance that this race might have been the plan for a while too. If Ruby was on board here instead of David Mullins, you can be sure he would behalf the price he is. He is not a rock solid system qualifer but he is strong enough.
I had also been tempted to put up Hayward Field in the 3:25 at Thirsk who was a shock 80/1 winner over course and distance last time out. I think the shock is how he was allowed to go off at that price(I did not back him by the way) as he had a really solid run at Kempton in a handicap twelve months previous. He split two horses that day who have improved massively since and there still looks to be plenty of improvement on his mark on that evidence. The reason I did not put him up is because his win last time out came on much quicker ground and if it had been similar ground here I would have put him up tomorrow as a fairly confident selection. I have still had a few quid e/w on him but will leave it up to your own discretion if you want to back him.
My only tip yesterday saw some heavy market support but finished disappointingly having looked to still hold every chance when making a mistake two out. He looked to complete loose his action after jumping that flight and it was just a bad mistake at a crucial time. Hard to know how he would have fared but for the mistake but he was just coming back to the pack and he has not always found a great deal when asked. I would probably still give him another chance as he does look on a good mark but the fact his maiden status now stretches to 15 races, it would be hard to back him with any degree of confidence.
2:15 Galway Ceide Fields @ 14/1 (SKYBET) - Now a non runner
4:05 Market Rasen Moidore @ 12/1 (BETVICTOR) 0.3 points each way - Lost
5:00 Jack the Wire @ 11/4 (BET 365) 1 point win - Lost
Moidore is a horse who has dropped down to a really competitive mark now and while he can be a bit free going, I am hoping the application of first time blinkers can help him settle rather than light him up. Blinkers can either go one way or the other when helping a horse to settle so fingers crossed it will help him to settle. That is the main reason I have gone for a slightly smaller bet here, but I do think he can go close if the blinkers do their job. He is a strong enough system qualifier.
My second tip is Jack the Wire and he really impressed me the way he won at Tipperary last time out. He scrapes in here at the foot of the weights and a light weight on his back can only help, especially given the underfoot conditions. He has some really solid form in the book and I think a mark off 119 can be improved on significantly. He is a strong system qualifer.
I could not leave Ceide Fields go without advising some sort of bet on him tomorrow. He traveled as well as anything coming down to the second last on Friday but a bad jump and losing his action of the bend at a crucial time cost him any chance. This race is also a great deal easier that the race on Fridayand I am hoping he can at least hit the frame here. This will be the last chance I give him as if he cannot hit the frame here he is just one to avoid.
Total number of tips: 11
Total points profit: -0.9
Total profit to £10 stake: -£9
Total Profit to £50 stake: -£45
Return on investment: -9%