tipsters review - 16-Aug-2017
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Todays Racing Tip - FROZEN OVER
Time & Track - 4.00 NEWTON ABBOT
Best Odds - 20-1 4 PLACES
Analysis - An 8 times career winner 4 on the flat and 4 over hurdles of those 8 wins 7 have come on good or better ground with just the one on good/soft. His last win came at Taunton on good/firm back in April off 84 he went up to 91 where he ran well to be 4th on good ground before UR on good/firm when a close 3rd. Last time out over CD he was a well beaten 10th again off 91 but on good/soft ground. Todays better ground and mark of 89 gives him a much better chance of win no.9 as his previous 3 wins came off marks of 98-102-106 all in class 4 company.
Result - Lost
Todays Racing Tip - TOPOLOGY (NAP)
Time & Track - 4.50 SALISBURY
Best Odds - 20-1 (4places available)
Analysis - We did him last time out at Windsor where 2F out he was the only runner still on the bridle, he found nothing when let down that day which is a bit of a concern as he is a 12 race maiden but the way he travelled that day and the fitting of first time visor might just be the key. He also gets 1F less in trip and quicker ground the trip looks ideal though slower ground might prove better for him. This is an apprentice riders race where whips can't be used that also might just suit him as he found nothing once ridden last time and his 3lb claimer rider has 6 career wins with 4/30 in 2017 with over 50% (16/30) finishing in the top 4 so he seems very capable. Overall he has a lot in his favour here with 2 previous course runs both showing encouragement, the only negative is the possible fast ground but as he's still winless we still don't know for sure, 20-1 just looks too big.
Result - Lost
Todays Racing Tip - BALLASTEROS
Time & Track - 5.45 BEVERLEY
Best Odds - 16-1
Analysis - He's an 8yo who has plumetted down the rating of late with some decent runs in much higher comapny than this. His AW mark has always been about 10lb below his turf mark as he is 0/10 on the AW but now his turf mark is the same off just 73. The last time he contested a Class 5 turf race was Sept 23rd 2011 when he won a class 5 maiden off a given mark of 78 over 6F at Haydock since then he's won h'caps off 82-88-93-99-82-79-85. He does prefer a bit of cut in the ground but 2 of his last 3 wins have been on good ground.His only poor recent run when 9th of 9 was on good/firm ground. His last run was in class 3 company so this class 5 0-75 is much easier company for him, he has a decent draw in 1 plus a 7lb claimer taking yet more weight of his back 16-1 just looks way over priced.
Result - Placed
Todays Racing Tip - BE SEEING YOU
Time & Track - 8.20 BANGOR
Best Odds - 16-1
Analysis - He's only won twice one over 2m6 the other over todays 2m4 they came off marks of 96 & 107 making today mark of just 87 look very winnable. This is a class 5 0-100 on good ground which again is ideal for him, plus his rider takes a further 5lb off his back. His last 2 runs over hurdles have been good efforts plus his last run here at Bangor was a good run when 7th of 10 beaten only 15L in class 4 company off 105 back in Jan of this year. He looks sure to run his race and although its a big field its not that competitive I think 16-1 is way overpriced for his chances.
Result - Non Runner