12:40 Kempton, Pablo Del Pueblo – 10/1 generally – WON
Has returned to the Simon Dow yard after having a short spell with Jim Boyle, and although not winning for that yard, he ran well a couple of time but ruined his chance by racing keenly. He’s dropping to 5f tomorrow for a yard that knows how to get the horse to win, having won three times for Dow at Lingfield, one of which was when returning from a long absence which is reassuring with him returning from a break tomorrow. He’s raced just once at Kempton and was poor, but that was his debut run in in 2021 so I’m not put off at all, and if fired up to go well on his return to action, then I fancy his chances from a plum-draw in a race which could be run to suit.
6:30 Southwell, Vega Sicilia – 1pt win 6/1 generally – LOST
Haku the fav should go well off a lower mark than when winning last time under his in form claimer. But this race looks quite tight between the top few in the market, so at a much bigger price I’m going to have a bet on the least exposed horse in the field, and one who looked good when winning last time stepping up to this 1m 4f trip for the first time and beating a nice Michael Stoute filly in to second, who was an eye-catcher herself the time before. He was never in a good position during that novice race, plus he came wide off the final bend, but the way he powered clear crossing the line and producing a decent time-figure, suggested to me that he could be well handicapped to improve over these staying trips off just a 3lb higher mark now he’s handicapping. He’ll need to be on his mettle on his return from a short break to win this, but he’s well-bred and hails from a top yard, so that’s highly likely.
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